Off-year races in states like Virginia, New Jersey and California are seen as important early barometers of how voters feel about Democrats fighting against Trump and his aggressive policies.
Will California support redistricting under Proposition 50?
Proposition 50 has sparked debate over California’s redistricting. It will play a key role in determining which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives.
Democrats are looking to bounce back from a boom in 2024, while Republicans are working to slow the typical momentum in which a party loses power, nearly a year after President Donald Trump won a second term and as voters head to the polls on Nov. 4 in a race that will give them a clue as to how voters are feeling.
Off-year elections in New Jersey, Virginia, California, New York City and elsewhere are seen as important early barometers of how voters feel about Democrats fighting President Trump and his aggressive policies.
The president has become a prominent figure in the campaign, appearing in ads and being a frequent topic of discussion during debates, as Democrats decry the president’s record and Republicans support him. President Trump is being careful, promoting Republican candidates and taking aim at his opponents on social media.
The 2025 elections include races for governor and other low-ballot seats in New Jersey and Virginia, high-profile voting initiatives in California, a state Supreme Court retention race in Pennsylvania, and mayoral races across the country, particularly in New York City.
The election is a precursor to next year’s more consequential midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress and, with it, the fate of Mr. Trump’s legislative agenda. The results on November 4 will be closely scrutinized to determine which party will have the upper hand in the midterm elections next November. Here are seven big questions surrounding the election.
Who has the momentum?
New Jersey and Virginia haven’t voted for a Republican president in decades, but gubernatorial races can still be swings, and these races are an indication of what might happen in the midterm elections.
Parties that do not occupy the White House tend to do well in these gubernatorial races, and that momentum carries over into the midterm elections.
Republicans won both gubernatorial races in 2009 under President Barack Obama, Democrats won both gubernatorial races in 2017 under President Trump, and in 2021 under President Joe Biden, Republicans won the governor’s mansion in Virginia and came close in New Jersey.
Democrats are favored to win both gubernatorial races this year, so a Republican upset in either state would bode badly for the party, which is currently locked out of power in Washington. A slim Democratic victory in one or both elections could also be a sign of trouble. Republicans are particularly focused on New Jersey. In New Jersey, President Trump will significantly narrow his margin of loss in 2024, and Republican candidates have better approval ratings than in Virginia.
Will California check President Trump’s redistricting efforts?
California’s election is at stake between President Trump and which party will control Congress.
The state’s Proposition 50 voting bill is a direct response by Gov. Gavin Newsom’s Democratic Party to the president’s push to redraw congressional maps in several red states.
After Texas gained five more Republican-leaning seats, Newsom pressured California lawmakers to offset the move by picking up more Democratic-leaning seats. That would require voter approval to temporarily bypass the state’s independent redistricting commission, which was established by an earlier ballot initiative in 2010.
Land readjustment disputes are having a huge impact. President Trump has been persuading red state leaders to draw Republican-leaning midterm maps amid concerns that a Democratic-led House of Representatives would block his policy agenda during his final two years in the White House, opening the door to investigations, oversight and even a third impeachment. But California could potentially offset much of President Trump’s efforts in other states.
Will Newsom 2028 gain momentum?
Approval of Prop. 50 would also be a major victory for Newsom, the face of his campaign and one of Trump’s main opponents.
Newsom recently said he is considering running for president in 2028. He is responding to the Democratic Party’s desire for a fighter to take on the president, who many see as a dictator, and is taking a strong stand against Trump.
Blocking the president’s redistricting power play could strengthen his status as one of President Trump’s most high-profile sworn enemies and further boost Newsom’s favorability with Democratic voters, making him a coveted title in a widely publicized Democratic presidential primary that could include former Vice President Kamala Harris, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker.
Will the anti-Trump message work again?
Democrats are once again putting opposition to Trump at the center of their campaign.
That message energized the party’s base and helped Democrats take control of Congress in 2018 and the White House in 2020, but there are questions about whether attacking Trump will be a successful strategy with a broad swath of voters going forward. Trump won the popular vote in 2024, as well as all battleground states, making gains in key voter groups including minorities and young people.
Democrats running for governor in Virginia and New Jersey are emphasizing the cost of living and other concerns that continue to be top of mind for voters, and linking those issues to President Trump. This election may provide insight into whether they can find an approach to countering the president that resonates with them.
Are President Trump’s policies backfiring?
President Trump’s aggressive policies for a second term have his supporters excited, but Democrats hope many voters will see them as going too far.
The biggest test may be in Virginia. There are many federal employees in Virginia who have been affected by the government shutdown and the Department of Government Efficiency’s agency reduction efforts. If the shutdown extends past Election Day, it would be the longest shutdown in U.S. history.
There are signs of hope for Republican gubernatorial candidate Winsome Earl Sears, as Virginia elects Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin in 2021 and President Trump aims to cut the state’s deficit in half from 2020 to 2024. If Democrats continue to do well, it could signal widespread dissatisfaction with the extent of the president’s efforts to change the government.
Shutdown politics are also factoring into the New Jersey gubernatorial race after President Trump suspended funding for the construction of a tunnel between New York and New Jersey.
Where are the Democrats?
The Democratic Party’s ideological divide is on full display in the 2025 race, which features more moderate candidates for governor in New Jersey and Virginia and a far-left front-runner for mayor in New York.
Democratic socialist Zoran Mamdani is leading the New York mayoral race on a promise of aggressive government intervention to cut costs, which President Trump has slammed and threatened to withhold funding from the city if he wins. Meanwhile, Abigail Spanberger of Virginia and Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey are focusing on their government backgrounds, Spanberger’s CIA background and Sherrill’s Navy background, when running for governor.
The party continues to struggle with how to define itself in the Trump era, and the 2025 campaign will come under scrutiny over what kind of messaging and candidate profile will connect with the party’s base and broader electorate. Democrats’ search continues with midterm primaries for House and Senate seats and into the 2028 presidential primary, when the party will look for a new leader who can win.
What other races might be affected?
While a few races get the most attention, there are contests all over the country that can have national impact.
Detroit, Minneapolis, Seattle, Pittsburgh, Atlanta and other major Democratic cities are also voting for mayors at a time when President Trump is battling with local leaders over deploying the National Guard to fight crime. The winner may survive an explosive problem with federal troops on the streets.
Pennsylvania voters will be asked whether they want to keep the state’s three Supreme Court justices, all of whom are Democrats. Pennsylvania is a key swing state, and the composition of the Supreme Court could be important in cases that affect the nation, such as those related to elections. Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro, who is up for re-election in 2026 and is considered a presidential candidate in 2028, is appealing to voters to keep the judge in office in a new ad.
There are also congressional elections in Virginia and New Jersey this year, and the race for attorney general in Virginia is in the spotlight after Democrats became embroiled in texting scandals. Democrats control every lever of state government in New Jersey and are seeking the same in Virginia, with implications for everything from redistricting to potential backlash against the Trump administration.
