Melissa is expected to quickly develop into a powerful hurricane with devastating effects on the Caribbean Sea
AccuWeather meteorologists predict life-threatening flooding in Jamaica, the Dominican Republic and Cuba, leading to a potential humanitarian crisis within days.
Melissa rapidly strengthened into a hurricane on Saturday, October 25, as it continued to move slowly through the Caribbean Sea. Forecasters predict the hurricane could strengthen into a Category 4 or 5 hurricane with wind speeds of more than 150 miles per hour.
The storm was declared a hurricane Saturday afternoon with wind speeds of 110 kilometers per hour, according to the National Hurricane Center. A tropical cyclone becomes a hurricane when wind speeds reach 114 miles per hour. Melissa is expected to become a major hurricane before the end of the weekend.
Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza said a “severe hurricane with widespread impact and damage across Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba is likely.”
Evan Thompson, principal director of the Jamaica Meteorological Service, said he expected the hurricane to cause devastating damage when it makes landfall, probably on Tuesday, October 28.
“I’ve never experienced anything like this before,” Thompson said at a Saturday morning news conference. “It’s important for us to consider this an unusual situation.”
The Hurricane Center warned that “catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected in southern Hispaniola and parts of Jamaica over the weekend.”
A hurricane warning is in effect for all of Jamaica.
The storm is not expected to have a significant impact on the United States, forecasters said. But Melissa is expected to bring rough waves, beach erosion and some severe weather to parts of the East Coast next week, as well as coastal storms, AccuWeather said.
Where is Melissa going?
“Melissa’s exact path is still subject to considerable uncertainty due to its current disorder, but in general it is likely to circle around Jamaica and enter eastern Cuba,” Lanza said. It will then head north to the Bahamas, where it will likely hit the water next week.
The Hurricane Center announced on October 25 that the storm was expected to slowly turn northward on Monday, and that “most recent reliable track models indicate that Melissa will make landfall in Jamaica within approximately 72 hours.”
Jamaica prepares for historic hurricane
Mr Thompson, from the country’s weather bureau, said Jamaica had never seen a hurricane of this magnitude hit the island in recorded history. He noted that climate change is accelerating the intensity of hurricanes.
Hurricane-force winds are expected to begin hitting the island around Monday, after lasting for about two days. Parts of the island are expected to receive about 15 to 25 inches of extreme rain, he added, an amount much higher than people begin to imagine. Storm surge could reach more than 8 feet in southern coastal areas.
Thompson said that even after the hurricane passes through the island, road closures, landslides and flooding could hamper emergency response and cleanup efforts for the next few days.
Some of the worst effects of the storm are expected to hit Jamaica, according to the Hurricane Center. “Melissa’s slow movement continues to increase the risk of multiple days of potentially damaging winds, heavy rains that could cause life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides, and storm surge for Jamaica,” the Hurricane Center said.
Hurricane Melissa path tracking device
This predicted track shows the most likely path of the storm’s center. This does not indicate the full width of the storm or its impact, and the center of the storm can move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
hurricane melissa spaghetti model
Illustrations include a variety of predictive tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five best-performing models to make predictions..
How do hurricanes form?
Hurricanes are formed over warm water in the tropics. Thunderstorms can form over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees. If conditions are right, the cluster will swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical cyclone.
A tropical cyclone becomes a named tropical cyclone when its sustained wind speed reaches 39 miles per hour. When wind speeds reach 114 miles per hour, a storm officially becomes a hurricane.
Prepare for hurricanes now
Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it’s too late. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recommends, “Get disaster supplies while shelves are stocked and get your insurance check early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period.”
- make an evacuation plan. If you are in danger of a hurricane, you need an evacuation plan. Now is the time to start planning where you’re going and how you’re going to get there.
- Prepare disaster prevention supplies. Whether you’re evacuating or sheltering in place, you’ll need supplies to not only survive the storm, but also likely for the long-term aftermath, NOAA says.
- Get an insurance check and fill out the paperwork with your belongings. Contact your insurance company or agent today to make sure you have enough insurance to repair or replace your home and belongings. Note that home insurance and renters insurance do not cover floods, so you will need separate insurance for those. Flood insurance is available through your company, agent, or the National Flood Insurance Program.
- Create a family communication plan. NOAA says you should take the time now to write down your hurricane plan and share it with your family. Decide where your family will gather, and be sure to include locations outside the city in case you evacuate.
- strengthen your home. Now is the time to make your home more resilient to hurricanes. We cut down trees and install storm shutters, accordion shutters, and impact-resistant glass. Seal openings in exterior walls.
Contributors: Julia Gomez and Gabe Hauari.
(This story has been updated to add new information.)
