The forecast for Tropical Storm Melissa is fraught with uncertainty, creating several devastating worst-case scenarios for Caribbean islands.
Tropical Storm Melissa continued to meander across the central Caribbean on October 23, and its future path and strength continue to baffle meteorologists, who are now sounding the alarm about how strong the storm could become.
“Needless to say, this is a very difficult path prediction,” the National Hurricane Center said in an Oct. 22 forecast discussion. Additionally, “intensity predictions are also more uncertain than usual, and this is primarily related to path uncertainty.”
And a super Category 5 storm is still possible, making Melissa the “most impactful storm of the 2025 season,” Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza said in an Oct. 22 Substack post.
In fact, if Melissa ends up circling west over the Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica (as some model forecasts suggest), “it will likely reach Category 5 and probably be one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean,” Andrew Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami’s Institute of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, told X on Oct. 22.
Jamaica in sight
Hurricane Center forecasters said on Thursday, October 23, that Jamaica is likely to experience the worst of the storm’s brunt in the short term. “Melissa’s slow movement continues to increase the risk of potentially damaging winds for several days, heavy rains that can cause life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides, and coastal flooding in Jamaica.”
“High winds and heavy rains are likely to begin in Jamaica by Friday (October 24) or Saturday (October 25), prompting urgent preparations to protect life and property,” the hurricane center warned.
Hazelton added in X: “We are becoming increasingly concerned about the possibility of Melissa approaching or hitting Jamaica. Overnight hurricane models are trending closer and everything points to an impact on the island of Jamaica.”
Worst-case scenario for the Caribbean
“The worst case scenario is that (Melissa) locates close enough to one or several mountainous islands in the Caribbean to dump several feet of rain,” Fox Weather hurricane expert Brian Norcross told the USA TODAY Network in an email. “Three feet or four feet is not out of the question.”
The hurricane center said heavy rain could cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides in some areas. WPLG-TV meteorologist Michael Rowley noted in a Substack post that areas like Hispaniola are particularly prone to devastating flash flooding due to the island’s complex and mountainous terrain. “Flooding has historically been the scariest calling card for tropical systems in this part of the world, and the threat posed by Melissa is no exception.”
“It could be catastrophic in some areas, like Jamaica, parts of Haiti, or the southern Dominican Republic. That’s really bad news because Melissa is slow moving,” Lanza said.
What’s more, next week could become a very strong hurricane before moving north, Norcross said. “In that case, a major hurricane could directly impact somewhere in Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti or the Bahamas.”
Worst case scenario for the US
None of the reliable computer models indicate that Melissa is directly impacting the continental United States.
But forecasters say the chance of an impact on the U.S. is still small, and “the chance of a direct impact on Florida is not zero, but extremely small,” Norcross said in an email on Oct. 21.
“The only way that could happen would be for Melissa to drift into the westernmost Caribbean Sea before the jet stream across the United States scoops it north,” Norcross said. “But there is no indication of that in the current reasonable trajectory scenario. Still, a trajectory over Cuba and the Bahamas is not out of the question.”
AccuWeather’s DaSilva continued: “Even if Melissa reaches the western Caribbean, there is no guarantee that it will have a direct impact on Florida. Many models still show it moving over central Cuba and then out to sea. There is no immediate cause for concern for now, but it is definitely worth monitoring closely over the next few days.”
Map shows Melissa’s predicted course
This predicted track shows the most likely path of the storm’s center. This does not indicate the full width of the storm or its impact, and the center of the storm can move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Could Melissa become a Category 5 storm?
Lanza said Melissa will spend the next five to seven days moving slowly over the warmest and deepest waters of the Atlantic Basin.
Hurricanes gain power when they move over warm, deep water that is at least 80 degrees.
“Right now, it’s likely that it will intensify into a hurricane, a major hurricane, and there’s also a good chance that we’ll see a high-end Category 4 or 5 event,” Lanza said.
According to the Hurricane Center’s official forecast, Melissa will reach Category 4 strength by the end of the week with winds of 130 mph.
The Hurricane Center announced on the afternoon of October 22nd, “The likelihood that Melissa will become a major and dangerous hurricane is increasing.”
(This story has been updated to include new information and video.)
