Melissa causes life-threatening floods
In today’s forecast feed, AccuWeather’s Bernie Rayno breaks down the latest information from the tropics.
Tropical Storm Melissa continues to develop in the Caribbean, with heavy rain and flooding expected in parts of Hispaniola and Jamaica starting Thursday, October 23rd.
The National Hurricane Center announced in an advisory at 2 p.m. ET on October 22 that Melissa is located approximately 320 miles south-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, with maximum sustained wind speeds near 80 mph and higher gusts.
Forecasters say Melissa is moving slowly westward, with a slow advance, and is expected to gradually turn northwest and north over the next few days before turning west by the end of this week. The hurricane center said Melissa is expected to approach Jamaica and southwestern Haiti later this week.
The hurricane center said in an advisory that it is expected to gradually strengthen over the next few days and that “Melissa could become a hurricane by Friday.”
Forecasters said Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti and eastern Jamaica through Saturday, Oct. 25, with more locally possible. The Hurricane Center said “massive flash flooding and landslides” were possible.
The northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica are expected to receive 2 to 4 inches of rain through Saturday, October 25, with the potential for flash flooding and urban flooding into Saturday.
Swells generated by the storm are expected to spread across Hispaniola, Jamaica and eastern Cuba over the next few days, forecasters said.
Tropical Storm Melissa Path Tracker
This predicted track shows the most likely path of the storm’s center. This does not indicate the full width of the storm or its impact, and the center of the storm can move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Tropical Storm Melissa Spaghetti Model
Illustrations include a variety of predictive tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five best-performing models to make predictions..
How do hurricanes form?
Hurricanes are formed over warm water in the tropics. Thunderstorms can form over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees. If conditions are right, the cluster will swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical cyclone.
A tropical cyclone becomes a named tropical cyclone when its sustained wind speed reaches 39 miles per hour. When wind speeds reach 114 miles per hour, a storm officially becomes a hurricane.
Prepare for hurricanes now
Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it’s too late. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recommends, “Get disaster supplies while shelves are stocked and get your insurance check early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period.”
- make an evacuation plan. If you are in danger of a hurricane, you need an evacuation plan. Now is the time to start planning where you’re going and how you’re going to get there.
- Prepare disaster prevention supplies. Whether you’re evacuating or sheltering in place, you’ll need supplies to not only survive the storm, but also likely for the long-term aftermath, NOAA says.
- Get an insurance check and fill out the paperwork with your belongings. Contact your insurance company or agent today to make sure you have enough insurance to repair or replace your home and belongings. Note that home insurance and renters insurance do not cover floods, so you will need separate insurance for those. Flood insurance is available through your company, agent, or the National Flood Insurance Program.
- Create a family communication plan. NOAA says you should take the time now to write down your hurricane plan and share it with your family. Decide where your family will gather, and be sure to include locations outside the city in case you evacuate.
- strengthen your home. Now is the time to make your home more resilient to hurricanes. We cut down trees and install storm shutters, accordion shutters, and impact-resistant glass. Seal openings in exterior walls.
This story has been updated to add new information.
Gabe Hauari is USA TODAY’s national trends news reporter. You can follow him at X @gabehauari Or email Gdhauari@gannett.com.
