Social Security Trust Fund is projected to be depleted within 10 years
The main trust fund used to pay Social Security benefits is projected to be depleted by 2033 unless lawmakers make changes to the system.
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- Had there been no government shutdown, Social Security recipients would have learned the extent of their COLA increase in 2026 when new inflation data was released on October 15th.
- In 2025, more than 72.5 million people saw their Social Security and Supplemental Security income benefits increase by 2.5%.
- COLA increases in 2026 may be slightly larger than in 2025.
Seniors looking to learn about new cost-of-living adjustments for their Social Security benefits may have to wait a little longer than expected.
Under normal circumstances, Social Security recipients would have learned their COLA increases in 2026 after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released new inflation data on Oct. 15.
Shortly after, the Social Security Administration’s press office would typically release the long-awaited COLA numbers when the September inflation numbers were released.
Everything was thrown into flux when the federal government shut down on October 1st after a budget battle in Congress. Inflation statistics for October 15, as originally expected, were not released.
It was not known when the data would be made public. However, on October 10, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the September consumer price index will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Friday, October 24.
No other releases will be rescheduled or made until normal government services resume, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.
“This release allows the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines necessary to ensure accurate and timely payment of benefits,” the BLS said.
Still, we won’t know how much of a COLA shock retirees and others receiving Social Security benefits will experience in 2026 until official numbers are released.
Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, said the Social Security Administration needs to issue COLAs by Nov. 1 to meet statutory deadlines.
Social Security typically mails next year’s COLA notices throughout December.
The highest COLA increase for Social Security during the most recent period of inflation was an 8.7% increase in 2023. But analysts expect the potential change in 2026 to be around 2.7% or 2.8%.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he expected the inflation-adjusted rate for Social Security recipients to be 2.8%, based on expectations for September’s inflation figures.
The Alliance on Older Americans, a nonpartisan advocacy group, projects COLA growth to be 2.7% in 2026. The final COLA numbers depend on the release of September inflation statistics, which have been delayed due to the federal government shutdown.
Seniors understandably want to know as soon as possible an estimate of how much their benefits will increase.
“It is deeply concerning that political gridlock is withholding critical information needed for financial planning,” said Shannon Benton, executive director of the Seniors Alliance, which was founded in 1992.
“This is not a routine administrative delay; it is a disturbing disruption where real people are struggling to budget for necessities like rent, groceries, medicine, and health care without knowing what their income will be in 2026.”
The 2.7% COLA increase would represent an average increase of about $50 per month, or about $600 per year, for all beneficiaries starting in 2026.
Based on August statistics, the average monthly payment for all Social Security recipients was $1,864.64.
Some retirees may be considering an additional $54.22 per month starting in 2026. Retired workers receive an average monthly benefit of $2,008.31 and the COLA increase is 2.7%.
In 2025, more than 72.5 million people saw their Social Security and Supplemental Security income benefits increase by 2.5%.
Annual cost-of-living adjustments to Social Security benefits are based on third-quarter inflation conditions. This formula reflects monthly changes in the consumer price index for urban salaried and office workers in July, August, and September.
Unfortunately, some other important costs may increase in 2026.
Johnson warns that retirees are likely to run into surprises if Medicare Part B premiums are expected to rise.
Johnson said this could be the biggest jump in seniors in the program’s history, based on dollars rather than percentages.
The Medicare Administrative Board report projects that Medicare Part B premiums in 2026 will increase from $185 per month in 2025 to $206.50 per month in 2026. This is an increase of $21.50.
If the actual increase announced later this year is higher, it could exceed the $21.60 per month increase achieved in 2022.
Benton, of the Seniors Alliance, said the Hold Harmless Clause would protect Social Security checks from being reduced as a result of the Medicare hike. He said any increase in Medicare Part B premiums would be limited to the beneficiary’s COLA amount.
“So while your benefits won’t be reduced due to rising medical costs, in some cases the increase could reduce your COLA increase to zero,” she said.
Contact personal finance columnist Susan Tompol: stompor@freepress.com. follow himr X @tompor.
