What’s the winter forecast? Check out AccuWeather’s winter outlook.
It won’t be long until the cold and snow returns. AccuWeather’s long-term experts share what this winter will look like in the U.S.
Winter is approaching, but how cold will it get? Federal forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center gave us the answer Oct. 16 in their annual winter outlook.
Forecasters say a warmer-than-average winter is most likely for much of California, the East Coast, and Florida, as well as the southern United States. Colder-than-average conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest and upper Midwest.
When it comes to snow and rain, the northern Rocky Mountains and Great Lakes region are most likely to see the most precipitation this winter, the Climate Prediction Center said. However, a drier-than-normal winter is expected in the southern tier of the country, especially in the southeast.
The center’s forecast covers the months of December, January and February, known as meteorological winter months.
Which regions will experience a colder-than-average winter in 2025-2026?
“A region that extends eastward from parts of the Pacific Northwest, including the northern Rockies, northern Plains, and upper Mississippi Valley, is most likely to experience colder-than-normal conditions,” said John Gottschalk, director of operational forecasting at the Climate Prediction Center.
He added that far southeastern mainland Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle could also experience below-normal temperatures this winter.
Which regions will experience a warmer-than-average winter in 2025-2026?
Gottschalk said warmer-than-normal temperatures are most likely to occur in California, the southern Great Basin, the southern Rocky Mountains, the Southwest up to Texas, the Southeast and the mid-Atlantic coast.
Much of Alaska’s north and west coasts will also experience above-average temperatures. He said the areas most confident about warming are the Southwest, southern Florida and northwest Alaska.
Snow forecast uncertain, but NOAA predicts precipitation
The forecast, released Oct. 16, predicts only those areas where temperatures are most likely to be above or below normal, and precipitation is likely to be above or below normal.
This winter’s forecast doesn’t specify how much precipitation we’ll get in the form of rain, snow, or ice, only that we can expect more or less precipitation overall. The center said snow forecasts depend on the strength and path of the winter storm, which typically cannot be predicted more than a week in advance.
Curious about how much snow fell near you? Use USA TODAY’s detailed maps to find out snowfall amounts over the past 24, 48, and 72 hours. You can also check the seasonal totals starting October 1st.
Given the La Niña phenomenon, which is bringing below-normal precipitation to the southwestern United States, the drought will most likely continue or worsen in some regions.
However, the Pacific Northwest and northern Rocky Mountains are likely to experience higher-than-normal precipitation during the winter, and improvement in drought conditions is hoped for in these regions.
“An important point to add is that we are forecasting increased drought in the southern Plains, Southeast, and south-central Atlantic regions,” Gottschalk said.
What are the main drivers of weather across the country this winter?
Gottschalk said the main factor was the resurgence of La Niña. Although this phenomenon is considered a weak event and is likely to be of shorter duration than usual, its impact is likely to be greatest during the winter months and therefore has a significant impact on the outlook.
Another factor includes a mass of warm water in the Pacific Ocean that is currently stagnant off the West Coast. “There may be potential impacts as widespread sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific are currently well above average,” he said. However, he said these temperatures “can change very quickly due to changes in the path of the storm, so the impact on the forecast is very uncertain, but is being taken into account.”
What about the polar vortex?
“Unfortunately, we can only clearly predict the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex up to two to three weeks in advance,” Gottschalk said. “Therefore, we cannot make concrete and reliable predictions about its strength this far in advance.”
But he added that the conditions expected this winter “slightly tilt the odds that the polar vortex will weaken at times this winter.” As the polar vortex weakens, the probability of an arctic atmospheric explosion occurring across the country increases, he said.
I can’t think of any other pattern
Weather patterns such as the Arctic Oscillation, which can bring frigid temperatures to the central and eastern United States, are not currently included in this official forecast because they cannot be predicted more than a week or two in advance.
Other large-scale weather patterns in the atmosphere that can affect winter weather include the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can affect the number of heavy rain events along the West Coast. The phenomenon could also contribute to other extreme events in the United States, such as winter arctic air events in the central and eastern United States, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
This forecast also does not take into account snowfall in Siberia, which other forecasters use as the basis for their winter weather forecasts.
What about other winter forecasts?
AccuWeather also released its winter forecast in early October, with the private forecaster saying a “bookend winter” has arrived in the central and eastern United States, with the biggest storms expected in the opening and final weeks of the season. “Regions of the country, particularly parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic regions, could see a severe and stormy winter,” said AccuWeather Chief Long Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.
Elsewhere, a warm, dry pattern is expected to be most pronounced in California and the Southwest, with worsening drought conditions and unseasonable wildfire risk, according to AccuWeather.
