Analysis of MLB Wildcard Postseason Matchups
Bob Nightengale will classify each of the four wildcard matchups to begin the 2025 MLB postseason.
The Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres will begin their National League Wild Card Series at Wrigley Field on Tuesday, September 30th, with both teams hoping to score a key lead in three sets.
At the end of the day, the Cubs won in front of the home crowd. Early on, it all looked like the Padres as the monks frequently threatened and placed them in positions where they scored a few runners, but that wasn’t enough. Seiya Suzuki and Carson Kelly’s back-to-back home runs in the five innings were the Cubs who took the lead and never looked back. The Cubs won by a 3-1 margin.
The Cubs (92-70) won the NL top wild card spot and a home field advantage over the Padres (90-72), who has made their second consecutive postseason appearances in franchise history. The two teams have not met since April and split six matchups early in the season.
The highlights of Game 1 are:
Brad Keller didn’t need much to put the Padres in the nine innings. Machudo was grounded, Meryl jumped out into the deep center and Bogartos hit. No one reached the base, so despite the Padres constantly threatening early in this game, they were unable to run to win the first game of the series.
The Cubs win, 3-1. Game 2 of the series is set for tomorrow at 3:08 PM ET.
After Dansby Swanson’s leadoff single, the Cubs did everything they could to bring him home. He advanced second in the SAC bunt from Matt Shaw. That strategy was instantly ruined when both runners went on the wild pitch after a deliberate walk to Michael Bush to set up a double play.
That allowed Nico Horner to run alone with two men in the position he scored. Hoerner hit a SAC fly and drove on Swanson, extending Chicago’s lead to 3-1.
Pressuring him to keep the lead, Andrew Kittledge became huge for the Cubs, sending the Padres down in turn at the top of the eighth. The Cubs remained 2-1 at the bottom of the 8th inning.
To keep the Cubs within one, the Padres brought out a large gun. Former Athletic Mason Miller won the mound seventh and didn’t give up on inches, including a brutal strikeout at Carson Kelly on a fastball at 103 mph.
If Miller scores the eighth mound, Chicago could be extremely difficult to score. So it’s time for San Diego to use it to tie this game together.
Heading for the eighth innings. This is a 2-1 turnip.
It was a show from Palencia in his 1.2 innings work. Despite facing the hearts of the sixth Padres lineup, Palencia was able to put both Machado and Merrill on strike. The Bogaerts gave the fastball a nice ride to deep center, but were eventually caught.
The Cubs hold a 2-1 lead at the bottom of the sixth.
Well, that Thai game didn’t last long. Shortly after Suzuki, Pivetta surrendered another home run to catcher Carson Kelly, and suddenly the Cubs turned the game into ears.
The second Homer also encouraged Padres manager Mike Schilt to move the bullpen. Pivetta remains on the mound, but there are a few more mistakes that could force the team to bring in rescuers. This is a 2-1 turnip.
After four strong innings from Nick Pivetta, the veteran ultimately showed some cracks. Pivetta has only surrendered two base runners, but the game is tied to one.
After Padres catcher Freddie Fermin singled one and lifted the top of the Padres lineup, Cubs manager Craig Counsel had a good look. Already, he has turned his eyes to his bullpen, especially Danny Palencia. He will have the luxury of facing Fernando Tatis and Luis Arez.
After surrendering a single to Nico Horner in the first inning, Pibetta has since coast run, setting up an 11 straight cubs to close out the 11 innings. Still, despite Pivetta’s excellence, the Padres don’t give him much running support. They are threatening, but the monks were unable to take the runners from their scoring position.
Fifth, it remains at 1-0.
The middle of that Padres lineup has once again caused trouble to Boyd. After Manny Machado walked to lead the innings, Bogartos moved him to just three batters, later moving from singles to center field. There was a runner in the corner, and only one was out for Ryan O’Hern.
Back in the second innings, O’Hern had already been hit after shortstop Danceby Swanson stopped diving to hold Bogart on 3 base. This time, O’Haan lifted the lazy flyball into a shallow center field, while Swanson raced the race and created an excellent shoulder catch to keep Machado in third place. Two at-bats and two O’Hearn were taken by Swanson.
Swanson’s Great Glove continued to run further from scoring, continuing the game to the fourth bottom, just 1-0.
After a rough second, Matthew Boyd went 3 up for the third time, attacking Lewis Arez, a very rare sight.
The Cubs return to the dugout, still chasing after them one by one.
The Cubs were about to get their own run after the Padres began scoring at the second top. However, Nick Pivetta was hitting two kids at the perfect moment. It remains 1-0 towards the third.
It looked like the Padres were set to a 2-0 lead after the Bogaerts reached third place without an out. However, the fantastic diving stop from Danceby Swanson held Bogart in the third. It was followed up with a third pop-out, a groundout of short-out.
For some reason, the Padres managed only one run in the innings. Still, they head towards the 1-0 bottom of the second up.
Merrill led the lead in two innings and doubled down the right field line. And it didn’t take long for the Padres to take him home. Xander Bogaerts doubled Merrill into the left central gap. The second throw also left the Cubs, allowing Bogart to reach the third. There were no outs in the innings, and the Padres have already scored, with Bogart just 90 feet away from the score.
Michael Busch gave Pivetta’s fastball a deep center ride, but Jackson Merrill was able to catch the ball on the warning track. The Cubs got their first base runner of the game after Nico Horner sucked a ground ball through 34 holes. But that was as far as he gets, as both Ian Hap and Kyle Tucker descend from Pibetta without much trouble. As we head into the second innings, it remains scoreless.
The Padres fell quietly at the first top in the top three, Tatis, Ares and Machado. Manny Machado had the best opportunity to reach base and ripped the line drive straight on with the Cubs’ three-base hand mat show.
It is tied towards the first bottom with zero.
What time is the Cubs vs Padres game?
The first pitch is scheduled for 3:08 PM ET at Wrigley Field.
Cubs vs Padres TV Channel, Live Stream
Tuesday’s game airs on ABC and can be streamed on Fubo.
Watch the Cubs vs Padres in the MLB Playoffs
The Cubs and Padres are 3-3 this year. The team played only two direct series this season, with the Cubs winning the first Series 2-1, and the Padres winning the next Series 2-1 just a week later.
In these six games, both teams scored just 25 runs. This could match the playoff series as evenly as you would expect from all year round.
- parents: Nick Pivetta (13-5, 2.87 ERA)
Pivetta’s postseason experience is limited to three games with the Red Sox in 2021, and he has secured a solid 2.63 ERA.
Pibetta got off to two starts against the Cubs in April, one great start and another nasty start. In his first start at Wrigley Field, Pibetta only lasted three innings, surrendering three-inning run with six hits. However, at his next start, Pibetta played well in front of the crowds of his house, threw six innings of a one-run ball, allowing six hits and a walk, and hit the sixth inning.
- Cubs: Matthew Boyd (14-8, 3.21 ERA)
Boyd has struggled recently, posting an ERA for over 5 in his last 11 starts. It was far from the 2.20 era he saw in the first half of the season as Boyd won his first All-Star bid.
That said, there are many factors to the void. Most notably, he was spectacular in the pre-season Cleveland postseason, posting a 0.77 ERA in three games. He played a pivotal role in helping Cleveland reach the ALCS. Plus, Boyd pitched very well against the Padres earlier this year, giving up two runs in 11.1 innings in two starts against the brothers this year.
- Fernando Tate Jr. (R)RF
- Lewis Arseltz (L) 1b
- Manny Machado (R)3b
- Jackson Merrill (L) cf
- Xander Bogaerts(R)ss
- Ryan O’Hern (L) DH
- Gavin Sheet (L) LF
- Jake Cronenworth (L) 2b
- Freddie Fermin (R)c
- Michael Bush (L) 1b
- Nico Horner (R) 2b
- Ian Hap (s) LF
- Kyle Tucker (L)DH
- Seiya Suzuki (R) RF
- Carson Kelly (R)c
- Pete Crow Armstrong (L) cf
- Dansby Swanson (R)ss
- Matt Shaw (R) 3b
The MLB experts at USA Today Sports are divided into three wildcard series, between Chicago and San Diego.
- Bob Knight Engale:3 Cubs
- Gabe Luck: 2’s parents
- Jesse Yomtov: 2’s parents
