The National Hurricane Centre forecast track warns that a new system, dubbed Imelda, can stall offshore and dump heavy rains southeast.
The rare double storm of Humbel Aimelda causes a hurricane risk in the US
A rare weather setup has been formed in the Atlantic Ocean, with two tropical systems likely to develop dangerously close to each other early next week.
Non-Branded – Newsworthy Vertical
Hurricane predictors look at three major risk factors for people in the East Coast belt. This is a complicated weather dance that led to a troublesome prediction for late September.
First, Hurricane Humbel is screaming as a big hurricane in the Atlantic. Second, another storm that became resistant to tropical depression on September 27th will soon be named Imelda and is expected to move parallel to the coastline width from Florida to Carolina. And thirdly, unrelated rain is expected in the southeastern United States.
The three weather systems interact with each other in a presumably dramatic and chaotic way, increasing uncertainty.
Forecasts on Saturday, September 27th require heavy rain, dangerous surf and high-end tropical storm winds to begin arriving along the southeastern US coast by September 29th.
A tropical storm clock was issued on September 27th from the Palm Beach Martin County Line to the East Coast of Florida. The rip current is also expected to be strengthened on beaches along Florida’s east coast the following day, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Imelda was able to form, stall and throw rain in the southeast
The National Hurricane Center’s official forecast track call will turn the new system, called Tropical Depression 9, into a tropical storm by the night of September 27th, then into a hurricane by early next week off the Florida coast. The forecast shows that it will approach the South Carolina coast from September 29th to 30th, allowing nearly 24 hours offshore in roughly the same location.
A slow, moving storm means heavy rain will “substantial threat,” said Michael Brennan, director of the Hurricane Center. “We don’t know exactly where that heaviest rainfall will occur, but that’s added to some of the heavy rain seen in parts of the southeastern United States this weekend.”
“The threat of heavy rainfall is increasing from Georgia through Carolina from mid-Atlantic states early next week, which could cause flashes, cities and river flooding,” Brennan said. “So anyone on the coast of Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, will want to keep an eye on the predictions of this system throughout the weekend, all the way to the southern part of the South Atlantic.”
However, greater than usual uncertainty remains in the forecast.
As the storm approaches, the combination of factors is not to give mereographers comfort in making their predictions. This includes the effects of approaching cold fronts and higher-level disturbances on the region, questions about the speed and timing of the system and Humbeld, and the possibility of an unusual interaction between the two tropical systems when approaching each other early on September 29th.
Meanwhile, unrelated rain events that bring heavy rain to the Appalachians and the southeast are shaping up the potential for greater flooding, even before the tropical weather begins.
Hurricane Hanbelt and Fuji White Effect
At 11am on September 27th, Humbel was a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph. Humbel strengthened rapidly the day before, with its wind speed increasing by 80 mph in 24 hours. Humbel is located in the heart of about 365 miles north-northeast of the Northern Leward Islands, and traveled to West Northwest at 8 mph.
The computer model used for prediction for days suggests that Brian McNoldy, a senior researcher at Atmospheric and Earth Sciences at the University of Miami, suggests that the computer model used for prediction could have a Fujisensitivity effect between the Hume Belt and potential tropical storms.
It is a phenomenon that occurs when two cyclones near each other do not move independently, but start rotating around a common center point between them. That interaction can cause one storm to absorb another, and two storms to fuse together, and both storms can move in different directions.
“We’ve seen a lot of fun and fun,” said Dan Brown, Hurricane Specialist Branch Chief of Hurricane Centre. As a result, the Hurricane Center and its partners are scheduling frequent flights of Hurricane Hunter aircraft over the Western Atlantic to gather information about the storm and its surrounding environment, Brown said. Weather Services are launching additional balloons to collect atmospheric information.
On September 26, one model showed three opportunities for the Fujifara effect, McNoldy told USA Today. “It’s certainly within the realm of the possibility that Humbel and the future Aimelda will rotate around the common “center of gravity” during Sunday Thursday,” he said.
As a rough rule of thumb, the separation distance between the storm centres required for mutual attraction to occur is about 800 miles, but that’s not a hard and fast number, he said. Their relative size and strength also affect them.
“The Humbel becomes much bigger and stronger, so the center of gravity is much closer to the center of the Humbel, so Storm’s tracks can only feel a slight nudge, and future Imeldas may feel a serious pull and even leave the sea before they reach the coast.”
On the other side of the situation, he said, each of the two storms can move as if no other storms were present.
Heavy rain before tropical weather creates another layer of danger
The chances of serious flooding are thanks to the weather phenomenon that meteorologists call “previous rain events).
“This weekend’s setup could produce rainy events like its predecessor, or far outweigh future Imelda,” said Michael Laurie, WPLG-TV’s hurricane specialist on September 26th.
These presses are usually exacerbated by the presence of low-level, low-pressure areas nearby, as forecasts this weekend in Tennessee Valley.
An extreme version of this happened a year ago in the mountains of North Carolina and Tennessee, ahead of Hurricane Helen.
How much rain could it be in the southeast?
The weather forecasting center says 5-10 inches of rain could fall into the southeastern coast of Northern and South Carolina through the first few days of October. Higher totals could drop locally, leading to “scattered pockets of flash floods,” the Weather Forecast Center said.
From eastern Georgia to central Virginia, Accuweather meteorologists said the Carolina coast could be seen over 8 to 16 inches.
“Rainfall of this magnitude can lead to widespread, life-threatening flooding, especially if the storm slows or stalls,” Accuweather said.
Tracking the Atlantic Storm Path
This predicted track shows the most likely pathway in the center of the storm. The full width of the storm or its impact is not shown, and the storm center can move out of the cone for up to 33% of the time.
(This story has been updated to add new information.)
