Summer changes to fall, with predictors expecting long-term heat, big cool downs and hurricane risks. Here’s what you need to know.
What to expect from the upcoming autumn weather season
Meteorologists share forecasts for fall 2025. He explains which areas will transition to fall the fastest, and what to expect in bad weather.
People in the eastern half of the US may be wondering whether the ongoing cool pattern of seeing temperatures soak in their 20s in parts of West Virginia on August 26th will remain here. Has summer finished?
Forecasters say it will definitely remain chilly in the short term. “The high pressure fresh areas will move northeast from Canada over the weekend and stay for Labor Day holidays,” Accuweather Meteorologist Adam Douty said in late August. “Most places experience comfortable days with considerable sunlight and chilly nights.”
In fact, October has led to a typical temperature below 15 degrees Celsius below the historic average, with fewer night records in many places. Daytime highs range from the 60s to the 70s, with nighttime lows in the 40s and 50s.
Dan Collins, an extended range predictor with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, agreed with the forecast, saying “we expect to see temperatures below normal in the early September in most of the Midwest and Eastern areas.”
When will autumn begin?
September 1st marked the beginning of a weather decline in the Northern Hemisphere, and the astronomical collapse was still three weeks away, and this year it occurred on September 22nd.
Meteorologists use calendars to determine seasonal changes, but astronomers and the general public usually go with the autumn equinox when the sun is directly aligned with the equator, with sunlight and darkness equal.
West Florida remains warm
According to the Climate Prediction Center, residents of Florida and the West of the United States must wonder what the fuss is, as summer-like warmth is predicted to last in these areas.
In early September, temperatures would be the most unusually warmer in the northwest, with the rise in the ’90s likely to reach 100 degrees east of the Cascade, the Weather Forecast Centre said in its online forecast.
Warmth returns to the east
However, according to Accuweather senior meteorologist Chad Merrill, the warmth will return east by mid-month. The current cool temperatures must be replaced with above average temperatures.
Forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center also “above the temperatures above most of the lower 48, including September and the Midwest and East,” meteorologist Anthony Altusa told USA Today.
However, Accuweather’s Merrill doesn’t foresee the return of the extreme summer heat of over 95 degrees this season. “In the east, these temperatures end annually,” he told USA Today.
What’s bothering me in the short term is the lack of rainfall in the northeast that prompted the spread of drought in New England, according to the latest US drought monitor released on August 28th.
“In New England, droughts will get worse before tropical moisture moves later in the month,” Merrill said.
The hurricane is back
Accuweather meteorologists have predicted the period of increased tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin for the remainder of the hurricane season.
After the current storm lull at the end of August and early September, due in part to dusty dry air and cold water in the wake of Hurricane Erin, the threat of tropical cyclone prefers to return to the second half of the month, from October and even November, Merrill said.
“We expect the second half of the hurricane season to be busy,” he told USA Today.
How about La Nina? Could that still affect hurricane season?
“It increases as we approach winter when La Niña’s growing potential for development,” Johnna Infanti, seasonal predictor with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, told USA Today in an email.
Climate patterns marked with sea surface temperatures cooler than the Pacific average also help increase the number of hurricanes that form in the Atlantic by the end of the season.
“La Niña’s condition is associated with more activity (double amount) when compared to ENSO neutrals, and especially when compared to the November conditions of El Niño conditions,” said Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead hurricane season predictor, in an email to USA today.
If the Pacific seawater is not unusually warm or unusually cold, a neutral state occurs.
How else will La Niña affect the winter weather in the US?
According to Infanti, typical effects of winter in La Niña include cool temperatures in the northern US, reducing storm trajectory activity in the southern US levels, allowing milder temperatures and lower normal precipitation.
In turn, she said the storm tracks are usually shifted north, bringing normal rainfall to Ohio Valley and parts of the Great Lakes.
“However, the prediction of this event is still uncertain, and the signs indicate short-lived and weak events. Weak, short-lived events tend to have less reliable effects than strong, long-lived events,” Infanti said.
