The dramatic rise in Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries has put Russian gas prices high despite the government banning gasoline to deal with crunch.
Ukraine is focusing on drone attacks on refineries, pumping stations and fuel trains to injure Russian war machines, but to disrupt everyday life in Russia. Summer has seen peak demand among Russian drivers and petrol farmers.
According to CNN tally of the attack, Ukrainian drones have attacked at least 10 major Russian energy facilities this month alone.
And it seems the strategy is working. According to Ukraine’s intelligence agency, refineries described more than 44 million tonnes of products each year. This is more than 10% of Russia’s capabilities.
Among the targets is the giant Lukoil refinery in Volgograd, the largest in southern Russia. CNN planted a cloud of swirling smoke from plants attacked early on August 14th. The Russian Ministry of Defense admitted damage to the plants that were attacked again on August 19th.
A large refinery in Saratov, also in southern Russia, was attacked earlier this month. According to Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukrainian unmanned systems, the fire continued to burn on Saturday at another refinery in the Rostov region (Rostov region).
Gasoline shortages have been reported in Crimea, annexed with several Russian regions. Russia-appointed governor Sergei Akshonov said the gasoline shortage was attributed to “logistics issues” and that the government will “take all measures to buy the necessary amount of fuel and stabilize prices.”
Activist with a Crimean pro-Ukrainian group – Yellow Ribbon said on Telegram that the most popular Galedo-grade gasoline has disappeared.
Despite government subsidies, Russian consumers are paying more at the pump. The price of wholesale gasoline on the St. Petersburg Exchange has increased by nearly 10% this month alone, and has increased by about 50% since the start of the year.
Much of that increase has been passed down to consumers, with Russia’s Far East being particularly affected. Analysts expected that despite the Russian government banning gasoline exports in late July, they would not expect relief for at least a month.
“Unfortunately, our forecasts are unfavourable for now. We will have to wait at least another month for prices to drop,” NEFT Research’s managing partner Sergey Frolov told the Russian newspaper Kommersant. Kommersant said the price surge this month was “due to an accident at an oil refinery.”
The military is primarily aimed at diesel and its supply is not much affected, so the military is not much affected.
Ukrainian military and intelligence communications agencies have developed long-range warfare using drones, missiles and sabotages, even if very different conflicts were deployed on the ground. The military claimed this month that this year’s long-range attacks caused $74 billion in damage, causing nearly 40% of strikes of at least 500 kilometers or more within Russia.
While it is impossible to test such claims, there is a lot of visual evidence of the damage caused to refineries, storage tanks and pump stations over the past few months. Repairing such infrastructure is complicated by European and US sanctions.
In a report on Thursday, Ukraine’s foreign intelligence agency said Russian companies were urgently purchasing oil from Belarus to address the domestic shortage. Belarus’ state-owned oil refiner Bernevtekhim said last week that “interest in Belarus’ petroleum products in the Russian market has skyrocketed.”
Ukraine is also trying to block Russia’s oil exports. Last week, the drone struck the Druzhba pipeline, which supplies Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia.
Both complained to the EU, saying, “Through these attacks, Ukraine is not primarily hurting Russia, but Hungary and Slovakia.”
US President Donald Trump also stepped in, and in a handwritten note to Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban, he said he was “very angry” about the confusion.
But for Ukraine, pressure is put on the forefront, so the attack on Russia’s key energy industry is a way to counter the Moscow story that its victory is ultimately inevitable.
Ukraine is trying to add it to its long-range weapons weapons, and last week unveiled a domestically produced cruise missile called Flamingos. The manufacturer aims to produce 200 a month.
Missile expert Fabian Hoffman said that if, for example, the fatal radius of a flamingo is above 38 meters, it would cause great damage in the case of soft targets such as distillation columns in Russian refineries.
“Each missile successfully targeted causes much more damage (more than existing Ukrainian weapons) with a 1,150-kilogram warhead,” says Mick Ryan, author of blog Futura Doctrina.
“I wouldn’t call it a silver bullet, but it would have a major impact on Ukraine’s ability to hurt Russia,” particularly because it’s difficult to protect all oil refineries.
In the meantime, analysts don’t expect thousands of Russian gas stations to dry out, but they believe the disruption will already exacerbate high inflation, which could mean an extension of the ban on gasoline exports into the fall as the Kremlin tries to keep prices down and secure supply.
Annoa Abekah-Mensah of CNN contributed to this report
