Crime has fallen by 20% in Chicago. Why is Trump threatening to break in?

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The Democratic mayor says they have managed to lower crimes despite President Trump’s attack on cities as dangerous and out of control.

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WASHINGTON – Talking about crime has long been Achilles’ heels for Democrats, who have continued to struggle with issues at the national level during Donald Trump’s second term, despite data showing that violence is declining in major U.S. cities.

But with Trump deploying National Guard in cities like Los Angeles and more recently Washington, D.C., changing public perceptions of crime are essential for parties going on after the 2026 midterm elections.

There could be places like Baltimore or Chicago next, the president hinted. Mayors of those cities say they are ready to fight back by showing them, rather than telling them how their cities reduced crime.

“We’re the closest to people,” Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott told USA Today. “We are those who are proven by our results, and we are people who know how to communicate in a way that people understand.”

The administration’s militarized crackdown in the country’s capital presents Trump’s liberal enemies with a key test as a national figure who has grasped a variety of messages to counter Trump’s rhetoric and executive actions, including toes in the president’s shadow primary in 2028.

Some have cast his claims about crime as a “distraction,” while others have warned that the deployment of the National Guard is a step towards “authoritarianism.”

“He’s just gotten warm in Los Angeles. He lights his path to militarizing every city he wants in America. That’s what the dictator is doing,” California Gov. Gavin Newsom said in an August 11 post on X.

Other party leaders prefer to highlight how much crime is coming in these urban areas.

I don’t speak the numbers loudly

But strategists and experts warn that the way Democrats dropped out in the 2024 election will pose a risk of appearing deaf by simply citing data and statistics.

“I opposed going to statistics – it would feel like a gaslight to some voters.

But without a clear national figure, the challenge would fall primarily into Democratic mayors, some of whom emphasized that their cities were fighting violence well.

They said their party must apply the lessons they have learned since 2024 and show voters that the metropolitan area is not a crime-filled hell hole.

Mayor takes the lead by highlighting policies that make cities safer

Democrats “have to stop being afraid” to talk about fighting crime, Scott said.

It starts with forcing the fight against the GOP’s claims by highlighting personal stories, coupled with important investments that help reduce crime rates, the mayor said.

“Share the facts until your face turns blue,” said Mayor Quinton Lucas of Kansas City, Missouri.

For example, Vera Institute’s Advocacy Arm Vera Action rated the GOP spending more than $1 billion attacking Democrats on crime and immigration in 2024, with Democrats spending around $319 million on ads featuring public safety records.

“We missed Mark, and now it’s time to snatch the bulls ourselves and talk about the good work we’re doing as mayor,” said Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb, president of the Democratic Mayor’s Association. “This is a story we can win.”

However, it will be difficult to resonate with voters. Experts say many Americans see crime through what they see in their neighborhoods and local television news rather than through academic research or government reports.

It was a big issue for Democrats as the party adapted to Trump’s electric style.

In the 2024 exit vote, Trump outperformed Kamala Harris with five points on the issue of crime. He hammered former California Attorney General and San Francisco District Attorney as soft in violence, making misleading claims about the amount of crimes she and former President Joe Biden had while in office.

According to the FBI, violent crime fell by an estimated 3% nationwide in 2023 and a 4.5% decrease in 2024. Crime continues to decline in most categories in a July study from the Criminal Justice Council.

Some of the cities that have been called by Trump – all black mayors – have seen a serious decline in crime. They attribute some reductions to investments in youth programs and other policing alternatives.

Cleveland Mayor Bibb said he spoke to DNC Chairman Ken Martin and other party leaders. They have the same mindset. Democrats must flood the country with what they are doing to improve public safety.

A few days before Trump gained control of Washington, D.C., the DNC cut the eight-minute video – called “Mayor s-t done” – featuring Bibb, showing off crime prevention programs across the country that reduced murder, expanded affordable housing and expanded homelessness.

“The data is one thing, but it makes sure people feel and recognize the safety of the city. That’s what we’re focusing in Cleveland, and I know my counterparts around the country are focusing as well,” Bibb said.

He said murders had fallen by 30% in Cleveland earlier in the year.

Democrats say it’s a distraction

Democrats with higher political aspirations don’t concentrate their messages too much on crime. Instead, the threat of Trump’s deployment to DC and doing so elsewhere is distracting from unpopular parts of his tenure, such as Republican tax cuts and Jeffrey Epstein’s case file.

“Let’s not lie to the public,” Illinois Gov. JB Pretzker, who is full of hope for 2028, said in an August 11 post in response to Trump. “You and I know you don’t have the right to take over Chicago. By the way, where is the Epstein File?”

With about 800 guard members moving across Washington, D.C., Trump vowed that his efforts would become a “crime-free” city.

“This will be a beacon and it will also serve as an example of what can be done,” Trump said on August 13th.

He told reporters earlier this week that “other cities are looking hopefully,” resulting in a “self-purification.”

But in some metropolitan areas that have already begun. As the Department of Justice itself announced in January, total crimes of violent crime in Washington, D.C. in 2024 fell 35% from the previous year.

And in Chicago, a long-standing example of Republican outrage, violent crime has fallen 22% compared to the same period last year. This year, 110 murders were seen than in the same period in 2024.

Mayor Brandon Johnson, who took office in 2023, lives on the west side of Chicago, where shootings and other violence were tragic. He said he understands why some residents feel crime.

“I was the first mayor in Chicago’s history and woke up in one of Chicago’s least invested communities, where trauma and violence are widespread and at the same time experience a decline in violence,” the 49-year-old mayor told USA Today.

“So, I realize that this film doesn’t necessarily keep up with people’s feelings, but it doesn’t take away the work we did,” he said.

In Chicago, for example, the Johnson administration invested $40 million in July to modernize homeless shelters. He also promotes other initiatives, such as the Peacekeeping Forces Program. This is a $34.5 million state-funded effort to train residents to eliminate community conflict.

Johnson said he would do everything possible “to ensure that our constitutional rights are protected,” and suggested legal action if Trump complies with his threat to the city of wind.

“We must stand firm and stand up to this tragic president’s tyrannical rule,” he said.

Crime also fell in Los Angeles when Trump ordered the National Guard in June to help quell the anti-abolition protests. The city has the lowest murders in 60 years, and gang violence is declining.

The deployment of security guards to Los Angeles was “completely unnecessary,” Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass said in an interview.

“In Los Angeles, our city had 4,000 national security guards and women. They had no connection at all. Of those, 100 guarded two buildings, 200 of the 4,000 people, and the rest did nothing.

Whether Trump is able to replicate the development may depend on the outcome of a case currently in front of a California court. The state is suing Trump for his National Guard deployment.

Polling shows that at least the public is on the side of local officials when it comes to allegations of overreach in enforcement.

A Kinipiac poll conducted in late June found voters disapproved between 55% and 43% of Trump’s decision to deploy the National Guard in Los Angeles.

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