Kyiv
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President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met Friday for a summit in Alaska aimed at a shattering war that followed Russia’s full contract in 2022.
Last Friday, Trump suggested that the ceasefire agreement could include “territorial exchanges,” but it is not yet clear what areas he refers to, and Ukraine firmly rejected the transfer portion of the land. Russia also rejected the idea.
On Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron said Trump was “very clear” about his call with European leaders, and that Washington hopes to obtain a ceasefire and that Ukraine’s territorial issues cannot be negotiated without President Voldimer Zelensky.
This is what the map tells you what is at stake.
One proposal reportedly was presented to Moscow’s special envoy, Steve Witkov, who in exchange for a ceasefire, will give up the rest of the eastern Donetsk region and Luhansk, known as Donbass.
However, this week the situation in Donetsk has rapidly deteriorated, with Russian forces making important progress in the northeast of Dubropyria, changing control of the Witkov region and discussing with the Kremlin. Kiev dismissed progress as infiltration by small groups of Russian military forces, but sent reinforcements. Other Ukrainian sources in the region paint more disastrous pictures. In this picture, months of sustained Russian pressure culminated in weak places to exploit.
It is politically toxic for Ukraine Zelensky to voluntarily order tens of thousands of civilians and troops to leave the Donetsk region. Many people were able to refuse. It is impossible to evacuate tens of thousands of civilians in days or weeks to fit the schedule of a peace agreement that hatched during the Russian summer attacks, when Moscow’s troops have acquired status.
There are few obvious options for Moscow to return it. They hold slivers of land on the north border near Sammy and Kalkiv. Both are called “buffer zones” by the Kremlin heads and are the result of less intrusions designed to emit Ukrainian talent. But they are small and, as Ukrainian officials have pointed out, they are also part of Ukraine, not Russia. So they are not even equal to the obvious “swap”.
Some of the confusion over Witkov’s Kremlin meetings was whether Putin retreated from his biggest war goals and granted a potential ceasefire in exchange for purely Donetsk. Putin has always wanted more, and in fact, the Russian constitution perpetuates the false narrative that Ukraine is historically Russia, adding all four partially occupied regions of Ukraine to its territory.
Moscow holds most Almost everything about Donetsk and Luhansk. However, it controls about two-thirds of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, respectively, with the former partially freed from the Russian troops in the second half of 2022.
Will Putin agree to put the parts of Ukraine’s Herson and Zapolizia under Kiev’s control? That remains unknown. However, Ukraine, who gives this territory, is another non-star, demanding that they pass away or become Russians to Moscow, and in fact the whole bustling city of Zaporia. Zelensky also warns that the territory recognized by Russia will simply be used as a springboard for further invasion, as happened in Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014 and used as a launchpad for full-scale wars in 2022.
Statements from Ukraine’s European allies suggest that the current line of contact is the starting point for negotiations. It’s not a concession at all, it’s a significant change in tone. For years, Europe and Kiev have declared together with the Biden administration that they will never recognize or accept Russian rule over Ukrainian occupied territories. But since Trump returned to the White House, they have softened their position and quietly entertained the idea that the frontline may be frozen.
In fact, it would be a good result for Kiev now. Russia’s advances over the past few days have not been critical near Dubropylia, but across the frontline, they have turned the months’ incremental progress into more strategic benefits. Putin has clearly played for time in the past few months in Alaska, where he has reconfigured a summit aimed at an immediate peace deal to avoid intense sanctions on soft “listening exercises.”
For Kiev, the best outcome is that Trump argues that, in the “first two minutes” of the meeting, it is clear that he will impose secondary sanctions on India and China, the big energy customers in Moscow who he promised to implement last Friday, as he suggests.
However, Trump and Putin’s relationship is based on opaque connections that often nullify the long-term security interests of the US, so the outcome of the Alaska meeting in Alaska could certainly be a high-stakes dice roll, not a favor from Ukraine.
