For now, the most reliable computer model used by meteorologists shows that Erin is bent away from the US, spinning from the East Coast in the second half of August.
Erin predicts that it will be the first major Atlantic hurricane of 2025
By August 18th, Erin will likely become a hurricane off the southeast coast of the United States, so now is the time to prepare.
The National Hurricane Center said there are forecasts that tropical storm Erin, still thousands of miles from the US East Coast in the Central Atlantic, will move westward, and will be strengthened into the first hurricane of the season.
But will it be attacked by the US?
The most reliable computer model used by meteorologists to predict storms shows that Erin is bent away from the US and spinning the East Coast in mid-August.
“It’s too early to discount or pinpoint the impact of the US landing from Erin, but based on current model guidance, the current chance is less than 10%,” Weather Trader Meteorologist Ryan Maue said in an email to USA on August 11th.
WPLG-TV Hurricane Specialist Michael Lowry added a note of caution, telling USA Today, “It’s worth repeating that 5-10 day forecasts are subject to major errors, so we need to slam them firmly before we can be confident and completely transparent.”
Maue predicts that if a low 48 appears in Erin’s vision in the coming days, the model will be confident/certain in the final outcome. Therefore, we need to know what will happen on Thursday (August 14th).
But even if Erin avoids landing in the US, “it will likely increase significantly next weekend the ocean, surf and rift flow along the east coast beaches,” said Chad Merrill, a senior meteorologist at Accuweather.
What forces are leading Erin?
As is common in Atlantic hurricanes, Erin’s path is primarily determined by the strength of Bermuda High.
The higher Bermuda, the more threatening Erin becomes to the United States. The weaker Bermuda High is better news.
“Erin is first led by the Northeast trade winds, then into a clockwise circulation around the massive heights of Bermuda over the Central Atlantic,” said Alex Dasilva, a hurricane expert, Ackweather lead.
On the morning of August 12th, the Hurricane Centre reported that Erin should slow down westward as Bermuda’s height slightly weakened. Later in the forecast period, the highs are expected to be a little weaker, with more west-northwest-facing tracks likely.
Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza said the truck forecast is in a decent model agreement, saying “we will have a good tight truck consensus by Sunday or Monday, bringing storms north of the Caribbean islands.”
Warm water can fuel major hurricanes
According to the Hurricane Center, all signs refer to Erin reaching major hurricane status. This means that the storm will reach Category 3 status with a sustained wind speed of at least 111 mph.
The forecast comes from warm waters that the storm is expected to track and will provide fuel for the storm, the Hurricane Centre said.
Low wind shea can also help Erin to be strengthened
There is also a lack of wind shear that acts to tear developing hurricanes.
“Low wind shear (destructive lack of wind) and much warmer water in the north of the Caribbean could allow Erin to be rapidly strengthened this week and this weekend,” Accuweather Meteorologist’s Bernie Reino said in an online report.
Which parts of the US coast are at most at risk?
Accuweather said major hurricanes passing 100 miles east of the US or 100 miles west of Bermuda could lead to tropical storms in points of wind, heavy rain and possibly heavy rain.
“In this case, it could be the most trend in this case, such as North Carolina, Long Island, New York, Cape Cod, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyards in New England.
In Canada, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland may face greater impacts from Erin.
How worried should people be?
The Hurricane Center called attention as usual. It’s still too early to determine what impacts Erin could have on the US East Coast, the Hurricane Center said on August 12.
However, the Hurricane Centre said, “As we approach the climatological peak of hurricane season, it’s the right time to ensure that our preparation plans are in place.”
Lanza said the odds supported the mistake. “History favors ocean tracks, but not 100% of 56 known storm tracks 120 nautical miles from Erin’s predicted location in 24 hours.
