Trump’s global tariffs have been locked in: Who is winning and who is losing?
President Donald Trump’s new round of global tariffs is causing major economic changes. This is who gets it and who gets the biggest hit.
A 10% to 50% tariff rate on President Donald Trump’s dozens of trading partners began on August 7th, testing strategies to reduce the US trade deficit without significantly disrupting global supply chains, higher inflation and harsh retaliation from trading partners.
The US Customs and Border Protection Agency began collecting higher tariffs at 12:01am after weeks of suspensions and weeks of suspensions through desperate negotiations with key trading partners aimed at lowering them.
According to a CBP notification issued this week to shippers, by October 5th, items will be mounted in the US before midnight deadline and in transit before midnight deadline. Imports from many countries have previously been subject to baseline 10% import duties after Trump suspended higher rates announced in early April.
But since then, Trump has frequently changed his tariff plans, slapping some countries at much higher rates, including 50% of items from Brazil, 39% from Switzerland, 35% from Canada and 25% from India. He announced another 25% tariff on Indian goods on August 6, which will be imposed over 21 days over the purchase of Russian oil in South Asian countries.
“Mutual tariffs will come into effect in the middle of the night tonight!” Trump said of the true society just before the deadline. “Billions of dollars from countries that have primarily used the US for many years are laughing and starting to flow to America. The only thing that can stop American greatness is the radical left courts that we hope our country fails!”
Eight major trading partners, which account for around 40% of US trade flows, reached a framework trade and investment concessions to Trump, including the European Union, Japan and South Korea, lowering the base rate to 15%.
The UK won 10% interest rates, while Vietnam, Indonesia, Pakistan and the Philippines secured a cut to 19% or 20%.
“In these countries, that’s just too bad news,” says William Reinsh, senior fellow and trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
“There’s a supply chain repositioning. There’s a new balance. Prices will rise, but it will take some time for it to come out in the main way,” Reinsch said.
Countries such as India and Canada that have high punishment duties “will continue to run around trying to fix this,” he added.
Trump’s order specifies that goods determined to have been transported from third countries to avoid higher US tariffs will be subject to an additional 40% import duties, but his administration has made little public details regarding the identification or enforcement of clauses for these goods.
Trump’s July 31 customs order imposed more than 10% on 67 trading partners, but the rates for those not listed were kept at 10%. These import taxes are part of a multi-tier tariff strategy that includes national security-based sector tariffs on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, steel, aluminum, copper, wood and other goods.
Trump said on August 6 that microchip duties could reach 100%.
China is on a different tariff track and will face a potential tariff increase on August 12, unless it approves an extension of its previous truce after last week’s talks in Sweden. He said that Moscow may impose additional tariffs on China’s Russian oil purchases as it seeks to pressure Moscow to end the war in Ukraine.
Revenues and price increases
Trump is promoting a significant increase in federal revenue from import tax collections that are ultimately paid by companies that import final product goods and consumers.
The higher fees added to the total, reaching a record of $27 billion in June. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Becent said U.S. tariff revenue could exceed $300 billion a year.
The move will raise the average US tariff rate to about 20%, up from 2.5% when Trump took office in January, and from 2.5%, the Atlantic Institute estimates. Commerce Department data released last week provided evidence that tariffs began to begin raising prices in the US in June, including furniture, durable household items, recreational products, and automobiles.
The costs from Trump’s tariff war go to a wide range of companies, including Bellwethers Caterpillar, Marriott, Molson Coors and Yum Brands. Global companies that have reported revenue so far have suffered a hit in profits of around $15 billion this quarter in 2025, according to Reuters global tariff trackers.
(Reporting by David Lawder and Andrea Shaalal, Editing by Lincoln Feast)
