Africa is adapting to the new reality of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and countries on the continent face some of the best export charges.
But what could be a crisis is an opportunity for US rival China, which has long sought African countries and now offers a lifeline.
“We (Africa) are straight in the hands of China,” Nigerian economist Bismarck Lewan told CNN.
“That’s an unfortunate outcome,” Lewan said of forecasting a further shift towards China, which has emerged in recent years as Africa’s largest bilateral trading partner.
Four African countries – Libya, South Africa, Algeria and Tunisia, face some of the steepest tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, with export accusations ranging from 25% to 30%.
Eight countries from the continent were hit by a 15% tax. The revised tariff package released Thursday, the White House showed.
In April, when US import taxes were first announced, Trump pitched them as “mutual” and targeted countries that said they had a trade deficit with the US.
But Trump instead bases his tariffs on a trade deficit with the US. It’s not the customs they charge.
South Africa, one of the continental powers, challenged the imposition of a 30% tariff on US exports, saying that Trump’s decision was not based on “an accurate representation of available trade data.”
China has offered to ease the impact of US tariffs on Africa, and in June it said it will halt almost all African partner import claims.
“There is no other opportunity for African countries to strengthen their North-South trade than they are now,” South African researcher Neo Letoilo told CNN, urging the country to “rely on China and become the next US.”
“The US is gradually confiscating its global leadership position,” Letswalo said, adding that “the less reliant on the US, the more likely it is for China to become a substitute.”
Before the tariff deadline, the United States had not signed a trade contract with the African country despite efforts to avoid tariffs from the continent.
Letoilo described the US’s failure to negotiate a deal with Africa as “China’s open goal.”
The impact of Trump’s tariffs is already felt by some of the poorest people on the continent, including Lesotho, which is part of Africa’s most buoyant economy and was slapped at 15% tariffs. Before the bill was changed, it was previously hit by a 50% tariff (one of the steepest fees).
Lesotho Prime Minister Samuel Matekane said in June the suspension of more than 2 million people in the US combined with the massive tariffs that “have crippled the industry that previously supported thousands of jobs.”
Trump described Lesotho, a landlocked nation surrounded by South Africa as a country that “no one has ever heard of.”
Prior to the tariffs, Lesotho benefited from the US trade agreement, allowing it and other eligible sub-Saharan countries to export goods to US duty-free goods.
Lesotho authorities have declared a two-year national disaster condition against tariffs as a brace for its impact, and the textile industry is already tackling massive unemployment.
Thousands of roles are also threatened in Lesotho’s rich neighbour, South Africa, and citrus growers said they are suffering from “great anxiety” ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline.
In a statement this week, the country’s Citrus Growers Association (CGA) warned that if tariffs are enforced, “unemployment will be guaranteed.”
“Hundreds of thousands of citrus cartons are ready to be shipped to the US in packhouses over the coming weeks,” adding that the rate could be implemented, “meaning that a large portion of this fruit will be rolled out.”
Other South African industries, such as the automotive sector, are also facing the risk of economic shocks, analysts said.
“Already, there are companies in the auto sector that are threatening to leave (the country) as a result of a plunging business,” says Letswalo.
“Taxes increase the burden of existing issues. If these entities decide to leave South Africa, the already existing unemployment rate will worsen,” he said.
South Africa’s Minerals and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe told reporters on Tuesday that other routes are being sought for South African goods.
“If the US imposes high tariffs, we need to look for alternative markets,” he said. “Our biggest trading partner is China, not the US. The US is second,” Mantashe added.
However, the citrus grower group has expressed its reservation as South Africa scouts for wider opportunities. Finding another market is not easy, especially as the product is suitable for the specified market.
“The US market is still a priority and we need to improve access to China,” CEO Boitshoko Ntshabele told CNN.
“There is a deep appreciation of South African citrus fruits by US consumers. Since 2017, exports to the market have almost doubled. There is a great potential for the market,” Ntshabele added.
Letswalo believes there is a risk behind the attractive option of relying on Beijing to mitigate the impact of Trump’s tariffs.
Alternating us with China “can be at risk,” he said.
“If they’re not protected, Chinese products will reduce flooding and competition as many African countries are price sensitive markets,” he warned.
China-Global South Project (CGSP), an organization that monitors China’s involvement with developing countries, imposing trade obstacles by hindering its own trade deals in Africa.
Furthermore, while most of Beijing’s exports to Africa are made up primarily of manufactured products, exports on the continent to China are generally raw materials.
South Africa’s Ramaphosa advocated a balanced trade with China when he met his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing last year.
Letswalo advised that while Africa leaned against China for trade, they should seek domestic alternatives.
He recommended rapid implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AFCFTA).
Although founded in 2020, the implementation of the AFCFTA has been slow, slightly over 20 countries with 55 deals on the continent.
Rewane believes US tariffs can encourage Africa to “build economic resilience and not rely too heavily on biased trade.” In particular, he added that the continent must “look more inward rather than relying on outwards.”
