The nuisance of predicting hillsides and gun floods is particularly challenging by making predictions and warning communities along the Guadalupe River in real time.
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- Meteorologists felt the brewing of quite a weather event, but flash flood warnings had little time to act.
- Predicting flash floods in hillsides and warning communities proved to be challenging immediately.
- Despite early warnings and preparations, the speed and intensity of the flood caught the officials and residents off guard.
- Over 10 inches of rain fell in just four hours, causing the Guadalupe River to dangerously expand.
They felt the brewing was big.
Still, the most urgent advisories didn’t unfold until it was almost too late, for meteorologists and hydrologists tracking weather patterns that led to the fatal Independence Day flooding in Texas Hill Country.
The predictor said it pushed the warning as quickly as it retrieved the data. However, the treatment of predicting hilltop terrain and flash floods is particularly challenging by making predictions and warning communities along the Guadalupe River in real time.
“This is an issue we’re constantly trying to tackle: how to communicate better,” Greg Waller, a hydrologist at the West Gulf River Prediction Center at the National Weather Service in Fort Worth, told USA Today. “We can issue the best predictions in the world, but if they don’t go to the individual’s hands, if they can make the best decisions, then that prediction is little worthless.”
Authorities said on July 6 that at least 70 people were killed in floods caused by merciless rain on the night of July 3 and the early morning the following day. Carr County Sheriff Larry Leesa, who was the worst flooding, said search and rescue teams had recovered the bodies of 38 adults and 21 children.
The 11 children and counselors at Camp Mystic, a Christian Girls camp on the edge of the Guadalupe River, remained missing.
“I didn’t know this flood was coming.”
Local officials said they were caught off guard by the flood.
“I didn’t know this flood was coming,” Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly told reporters after the flood. “There was no reason to believe this would be something like what happened here. There’s absolutely none.”
The moisture from Barry, a tropical storm that hit Mexico in late June, drifted through Texas during the first few days of July, said Bob Fogerty, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio office. So it collided with a higher-level low-pressure system and parked it in place.
Then it started raining.
Meteorologists at the center initially felt that the combination of moisture and pressure could lead to heavy rain, but nothing particularly important, Fogerty said.
As early as July 2nd, officials with the Texas Department of Emergency Management or TDEM had made public preparatory resources, including a squad of rapid water rescue teams, saying “heavy rain is expected to cause flash floods across West Texas and the hill country.”
At 10am on July 3rd, NWS meteorologists joined a Zoom call with more than 12 TDEM members and county emergency management staff across Texas. It is unclear whether Kerr County officials participated in the phone call.
The focus of the call was the high moisture collected in Texas and the possibility of thunderstorms and heavy rain in the hill country, Fogarty and others said.
Meteorologists have predicted “minor” risks, or four levels 2 due to flash floods. There were no predictions for catastrophic flooding.
A few hours later, at 1:14pm, the NWS office announced its first advisory. It is a “floodwatch” from eight Hill County County, including Kerr. “Excessive runoff can lead to flooding in rivers, streams, streams and other lowlands and flood-prone areas,” he warned. The consultation also predicted 1-3 inches of rain and up to 7 inches of rain in some locations.
The flash flood “clock” is less urgent than a “warning,” Fogerty said.
“The purpose of a watch is to make people realize that bad weather can come,” he said. “We don’t necessarily expect action on the watch.”
After the Zoom call, Texas emergency personnel raised the preparation level to “Level II (escalation of response).”
“It was a very saturated environment.”
Waller, a Fort Worth hydrologist, also listened to the 10am Zoom call. His office is responsible for forecasting the rising river level. He said he knew the possibility of moisture and heavy rain, but at first he wasn’t too seeable normal.
However, just after lunch another hydrologist came to his office. He was surprised at the level of moisture in the air and how heavily rained down the countless rivers, streams and tributaries of the hillside. Feeling something more ominous, Waller invited more staff and made sure the forecasting centre had staff all night.
“It was a very saturated environment,” Waller said. “It wasn’t a normal thunderstorm day.”
Meteorologists in the Austin/San Antonio office have also been studying computer models and have noticed a dangerous buildup of moisture and heavy rain. At 1:18am on July 4th, they upgraded to a “flash flood warning.” This will cause your phone to alert local residents.
Still, predicting where and how flash floods will occur is extremely challenging, especially in hilly regions, such as the areas around Kerrville, where water can run into the valley and overwhelm riverside towns and campsites within minutes, says Chris Reesman, emergency management coordinator for Blanco County, about 50 miles west of Austin.
In 2015, heavy rains made the Blanco River 40 feet tall within just a few hours, pushing homes out of the foundation to attack banks and towns. These floods killed 13 people and destroyed hundreds of homes.
He said the speed and ferociousness of the flood surprised everyone.
“It happens very quickly,” Riedzmann said. “This is one of the things you have to do your best to notify everyone. You just have to look at it and think about it in advance.”
Meteorologists also rely on witness accounts to confirm that flood events are actually happening, meteorologist Fogerty said. Flash floods are inherently difficult to document, he said.
“If someone gets attacked by a two-inch hail and breaks a car window, they’ll call us and say, ‘I’ve been attacked by a two-inch hail,'” he said. “But if there is a flood, you are trying to keep it out of the way. You don’t take long to call it.”
Around midnight on July 3rd, rain began erupting on the Guadalupe River. In just four hours, they fell over 10 inches into the river on a hunt, bulging to dangerous levels.
At 4:03am, the NWS Austin office announced a “slash flood emergency.”
But for many who fell asleep that night without realizing the threat of the assembly, it was too late.
X: Follow Jervis at @mrrjervis.
