The fate of Iran’s nuclear program is still unknown

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It’s been almost a week since US bombers led Operation Midnight Hammer.

The smoke was cleared from the tile rub, but not from a debate over how much damage was done, whether Iran could rebuild the program, or whether it would. It is also not clear when the full extent of damage will appear.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly said that the US attacks have wiped out Iran’s programs and spurred a ceasefire. However, a US official, who was briefed on the initial assessment of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told USA Today that the core elements of Iran’s nuclear program appeared to be intact.

An angry defense secretary Pete Hegses retorted on Thursday by calling the bombing an “overwhelming success” and criticizing some media outlets for “trying to make the president look bad.” Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also forced Israel and the United States to abandon the attack, saying the bombing “didn’t accomplish anything important.”

“They couldn’t achieve anything,” he said. “They have not achieved their goals. They exaggerate to hide and restrain the truth.”

Rafael Grossi, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, drove down the middle road, saying that Iran’s program suffered “major damage.” He said three major sites (Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan) were hit hard, but no other locations were affected at all. The nuclear program could be rebuilt, he said, but he refused to put a timeline on it.

“All I can tell you is that, I think everyone agrees with this, but it’s very damaging,” Grosso told French radio.

The Senate is scheduled to vote for a resolution introduced by Virginia Sen. Tim Kane on Friday, which aims to curb Trump’s use of military force in Iran.

The measure “instructs the President to terminate the use of US military forces against Iran unless expressly approved by Congress’s declaration of war or by a specific approval of the use of military force against Iran,” the summary reads.

It is one of at least three resolutions pending in Parliament. Kane introduced it a few days before Trump announced the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities, warning that US involvement in the “war against Iran” would be a “devastating failure of this country,” Kane said on June 17.

The U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to receive confidential explanations on the June 21 strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities on Friday.

Senate counterparts were briefed on Thursday and were split as expected in line with party lines about how much damage the facility had caused.

Sen. Chris Murphy of D-Connecticut said Trump was “deliberately misleading the public” about the extent of the damage, and that the classified Pentagon report showing that the bombing only retreated Iran’s nuclear program every few months was accurate.

“I don’t think the president was telling the truth when he said the program had disappeared,” Murphy said.

Sen. Lindsey Graham of R-South Carolina disagreed after the briefing, saying he believed the strike had retreated Iran’s nuclear efforts for years.

“They blow these places up in the major league ways, they blew the major league backlash, they blow them away for years, not months,” Graham said.

Sen. Richard Blumental, a Connecticut Democrat who is a member of the Armed Services Committee, said Iran is still a threat, as it could still have the wealth of uranium and centrifuges that could allow the administration to reconfigure its nuclear program.

-Zac Anderson and Tom Vanden Brook

Israel targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities, military leaders and nuclear experts in a military action called the “Risingilion Operation,” and “disturbed every stage of nuclear production,” said Israeli Defrin.

The operation was launched on June 13th “to remove existential threats to the Israeli state,” Defrin said, adding that Israel knows Iran is “dangerously close” to obtaining nuclear weapons and plans to destroy Israel. Israel had no other options, he said.

The operation targeted nuclear facilities, dozens of senior military commanders, 11 nuclear experts, knowledge hubs and research and development sites, Defflin said. Israeli forces have struck over 30 facilities that produce components of Iran’s ballistic missile programme, retreating the development of long-range missiles, he said.

More than 30 senior commanders were “excluded,” Defflin said.

The US intelligence community is consistent. I don’t think Iran is building nuclear weapons. US National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard said a lot when he testified to Congress about Iran’s nuclear program in March. The US spy agency said “we will continue to assess Iran as not building nuclear weapons, and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not approved the nuclear weapons programme that was stopped in 2003.”

Trump and Netanyahu dismissed the review. Trump doubted the US intelligence reporting agency more than the person responsible for the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi (Saudi Arabia). Meanwhile, Netanyahu has spoken about Iran’s existential nuclear threat to Israel.

Still, I agree with the issue of uranium in the US Intelligence Agency, Trump, Netanyahu and the United Nations nuclear surveillance – the International Atomic Energy Agency – Iran.

Iran believes that Iran has developed a large stockpile and developed it at a sufficiently rich level to maintain the nuclear reaction that can be used in bombs. But as General Michael E. Kurira said on June 10, how quickly Iran could “sprint towards nuclear weapons”?

—Kim Hjelmgaard

Why did the US attack on Iran’s nuclear facility?

Trump ordered a strike at Iran’s nuclear facility – Operation Midnight Hammer – effectively participated in the war that began on June 13, when Israel began bombing Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure. Israel said it will help the US coordinate and plan the strike.

Trump said all three sites were “completely gone.” The pentagonal evaluation is inconclusive, and Iran says the nuclear program rarely skips beats. Actual damages and impact on Iran’s programmes could become more clear in the coming days.

The Saga between Iran and the United States dates back to 70 years and 13 presidents. This is a relationship that broke down after the Iranian people rose up in 1978, which helped the US set up in 1953.

At its heart are key allies in the region, an Israeli state, and important allies in the region that consistently find themselves in war with Iran or Islamic extremist groups who are proxies for Iran’s interests. Read some key moments in US-Iran relations here.

Contribution: Reuters

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