CNN
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After an overnight strike against the US Iranian secret nuclear program, the most important question is at least the “known unknown,” the rest of it. This answer could be the ultimate arbitrator of President Donald Trump’s decision to define the region for decades to come and embark on another Middle East conflict.
It is also the answer that is troubled by the elliptical and whimsical nature of intelligence. On the one hand, public debates of the nuclear sites of Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan should not want to let all of that nuclear secrets live there. (Iran says its programme is completely peaceful, but UN nuclear observers reported that they have found uranium particles enriched at up to 83%.
As Israel claims, if there are hidden elements in Iran’s nuclear program, it certainly wouldn’t be housed in the same place as UN inspectors roam, and in the case of Foldau, there was public debate about what could allow American bombs to penetrate its deep caves.
The raw materials needed for a nuclear bomb may be small. 20 kilograms of highly concentrated uranium are sufficient. Some of the components of devices fit into the minivan. This could be hidden anywhere in Iran. The skills needed to create weapons are offensive, and the expertise of humans who have been destroying Israel in both the last 10 days, strikes targeting key personnel and have been kicked out more permanently in the last 10 years.
It is difficult to imagine that Iran could suddenly make this leap if he could make this leap under the heavy fire of Israeli Air Force.
But this is unknown and Israel cannot have it in both ways. If Iranian programs have advanced and claim to be secret, there is also the risk that things you don’t know are happening. Is Iran just waiting to assemble all the necessary elements on other sites, as well as the atomic bomb? Only time can be seen.
The rebuttal is also convincing. Israel was able to kill Iranian nuclear scientists and military commands. They slept at home. The first wave of the strike on June 13th hit certain rooms in the apartment block. There is no perfect operation. You may know a lot about the Washington and Tel Aviv combination.
It was not only the Fortress of the Fordau mountains that were attacked. The dust has been cleared and the satellite image makes the battle damage rating more clear, so you can know that a target you didn’t know about a week ago is hit. For opponents of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, it should provide some comfort, as almost everyone would ban almost a handful of Iran’s hardliners.
But the Saturday night strike may not remove everything — not all experts and fissile material. The struggle is to chase what is left behind. It is to pursue survivors and find opportunities for panicked elements of a nuclear project to make a mistake when scattering or picking tiles.
What remains, if any, would be part of an unknown Iranian programme. Tehran may decide that it is better to reveal or advance this greatest secret only after the threat of an Israeli strike has reced. Does it make sense to hurry it out now at the height of surveillance and artillery fire?
Diplomaty says Trump is re-registering now, “Now is the time of peace!” However, his face has completely changed compared to a week ago. Iranian officials had hinted at media that may be willing to give up enrichment during talks last week. Demand placed on top of it could now be concentrated on its ballistic missile program. It appears to have already happened at a fast pace, through the violent use of missiles targeting Israel, and through the Israeli strike, which claims to have taken out most of the launchers as a result of the Israeli strike.
The fact that Iran’s wish list for negotiations has now undergone a major change reveals the challenge of this moment to the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Kamenei, as much of what it wanted to maintain is being destroyed or used. His air was owned by a hostile Air Force, his nuclear programmes were heavily damaged, his military infrastructure and orders had to be shattered and replaced in order to adapt and survive. This limits his immediate and preferred response options. A flat-out strike against a US base is merely a repeated violent US retaliation, and after this much of this telegraph it could prove ineffective.
Iran generally relies on asymmetrical responses to compensate for its smaller budgets and capabilities. This may be seen in the European capital and the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days. To survive, you need to not only show some deterrent, but also deescalate.
But the ability to see Iran’s long views and its strategic patience works in its advantage. There is no real election cycle that plagues Ayatollah’s decision-making. Iranians have time to reorganize and react when the fever is low.
However, the US has a poor track record of success and application in the region. Last night, it gained the questionable distinction that in just 20 years it bombed a complete national sweep of the country from Syria to Afghanistan. However, it failed to remove Syria’s Assad regime, and despite years of attempts, when last year’s drastic changes removed one of the proxies in Iran’s major regions. And the longest war in Afghanistan ended with severe humiliation. Iraq also failed after years of destruction and loss, starting with contested information about weapons of mass destruction.
Iran is not Iraq, and last night was March 20, 2003, when the US’s unfortunate invasion of that country began. Trump’s ambitions in Iran had no fundamental elements, and its goal was widely supported by allies and perhaps within reach. However, the questionable track record of the US and the hub-harmed atmosphere of Trump’s overwhelming use of power should amplify local alarms more than unknown regions in the future.
