CNN
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How will Moscow respond to stunning Ukrainian drones in a strategic aircraft fleet?
So far, the Kremlin remains tightly trapped, only saying it is awaiting the results of a formal investigation into the attack that hit air bases thousands of miles from the Ukrainian border.
But Fury is openly vented throughout the Russian media, with Prokremlin experts and bloggers pursuing retaliation, seeking nuclear retaliation.
“This is not just an excuse, it’s the reason to launch a nuclear attack in Ukraine,” the well-known “two major” blogger told a popular telegram channel with over a million subscribers.
“After the mushroom cloud, you can think about who lied, made a mistake, etc.” they added, referring to the search for the Kremlin’s fiasco scapegoat.
At least one prominent Russian political analyst, Sergei Markov, warned in a social media post that using nuclear weapons would “reduce real political isolation.”
However, popular blogger Alexander Cott demanded that Russia “attack all our powers, regardless of the outcome.”
Of course, Russian hardliners are routinely clammer-sized figures for the removal of Ukraine’s nuclear weapons, yet are still shrouded in thin veils, but ultimately publishing Armageddon’s sky threats targeting Western allies. It is hardly surprising that they are doing so again after such a painful series of attacks.
But it would be wrong to be too satisfied to dismiss all Russian nuclear saber rat rings as mere propaganda.
In fact, this time there are several reasons to worry about taking the slim possibility of a catastrophic Russian reaction.
First, several Russian critics have commented on how the destruction of a considerable number of Russian strategic nuclear bombers in Ukraine is interpreted as violating Moscow’s legal nuclear threshold.
The Kremlin’s recently updated nuclear doctrine sets the conditions for launches — says attacks on military infrastructure “which “disturbs nuclear reactivity behavior” and “critically important” could cause nuclear retaliation.
The Ukrainian operation was “the basis for a nuclear attack,” says Vladmir Soloviviv, a TV firefighter host in the Russian province, calling for a strike in Kiev’s Ukrainian presidential office.
Whatever its legality, the barriers to the Russian nuclear reaction remain benevolent and high, and such strikes could be dismissed by the Kremlin world as a practical over-view.
The first will poison ties with major Russian trading partners such as China and India, causing potential military action against the Russian army.
The inevitable mass casualties will bring about universal caveats and ensure further isolation of Russia at the international stage.
But here is the problem. The Kremlin may feel overwhelming pressure to restore deterrence.
It was not only recent Ukrainian drone attacks deep in Russia that humiliated Moscow. Shortly afterwards, Ukraine launched yet another bold assault on the strategic Karch Bridge, linking Russia with Crimea.
Last year, another powerful blow was hit by the capture by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region of western Russia, and the Kremlin struggled to free its land. Meanwhile, if not weekly, drone attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure and airports continue to cause widespread disruption, far from the frontline.
At the same time, Ukrainian allies are gradually lifting restrictions on the use of Western-supported weapons against Russia, further challenging what was once believed to be Moscow’s red line.
Few people doubt that the Kremlin is itching to react decisively, but how?
A former Russian minister told CNN that the most likely response by Moscow was the “wild” traditional missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities where Ukrainians have already suffered for many years.
“Russia has no ability to launch a massive military attack, so there is no other way. They don’t have enough personnel,” said Vladimir Mirov, a former deputy energy minister who currently lives outside of Russia.
“People talk about the possibility of nuclear weapons and more. I don’t think this is on the table. But President Putin has shown many times that he relies on wildness and revenge.”
In other words, although very unlikely, nuclear options cannot be completely discounted. This Ukrainian conflict has already won multiple unexpected turns, particularly the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022 itself.
And while Ukraine and its supporters enjoy the surprising success of recent military operations, thrusts at a humiliated, wounded Russian bear can have dangerous and horrifying consequences.
