CNN
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It was already difficult to imagine a breakthrough from direct talks between Russia and Ukraine that it was due to be updated in Istanbul on Monday.
However, it is unlikely that either side is ready to shift the red line after what appears to have been multiple large Ukrainian drone strikes against the strategic foundations across Russia.
Even before the latest strike targeting Russian strategic aircraft thousands of miles from the Ukrainian border, the Kremlin had refused to formally set it up in the form of an agreed memorandum.
However, Russian officials have not kept secret about their hard-line terms, including sovereignty over all annexed territories, Ukraine’s condemnation, immediate sanctions relief, and what the Kremlin calls “de-apomorphic” including things like guaranteeing the rights of Russian chefs.
Further NATO expansion to the Russian border, particularly Ukraine and other countries, as well as the fate of hundreds of millions of dollars in frozen Russian assets overseas, has also been consistently complained by the Kremlin.
There is speculation in Russian and Western media about possible areas of negotiation, and the outcome of the Istanbul consultations is closely monitored for hints of flexibility.
But in the aftermath of what appears to be a spectacular Ukraine success, the Kremlin compromise talk may be off the table for now.
Ukraine enters this second round of in-person talks, which has been bolstered by the obvious destruction of Russian strategic bombers and other important aviation assets.
On Sunday, President Volodymyr Zelensky set several of the Ukrainian positions, including an unconditional ceasefire and the return of Ukrainian children who were taken to Russia.
However, Russia’s demands to withdraw from the territory claimed by Ukrainian forces have not even conquered.
Russia was bolstering its attack on Ukraine, which appears to be the early stages of a new summer attack, even before the latest Ukrainian drones attacked.
On Saturday, Russia launched its biggest drone attack on Ukraine since the start of the war. 472 drones are included. On Sunday, a Russian missile strike killed at least 12 people and injured more than 60 people at a training site for the Ukrainian military.
As all this unfolds, US President Donald Trump, who boasted that he was able to end the Ukrainian war in a short order, is increasingly annoyed by US President Donald Trump, sees it from the sidelines as the cornerstone of his stated foreign policy.
Neither his pressure on the Ukrainian leaders that Trump denounced in his oval office nor the recent old extension of the Kremlin rulers seem to have brought both sides closer to a peace deal.
Trump still has a strong lever if he chooses to impose tough new sanctions, such as those overwhelmingly supportive in the US Senate. The measures may not be conclusive, but they will send a message of US commitment.
What Trump says he wants to do is simply move away from the confusion. This is Biden’s war, he claims, or the war between Putin and Zelensky.
But leaving – and it’s unclear what that means from a US policy standpoint, but it may no longer be an option. At least don’t leave unharmed.
His own claim to end the Ukrainian conflict and his personal intervention with the Ukrainian and Russian leaders mean that Trump and the United States are now closely linked to the outcome.
As a result, events at the battlefield and negotiation table in Istanbul are being monitored very closely.
Despite his regular attempts to dismiss it, the Ukrainian War has become a war of so many Trumps, and our credibility is now hanging from the thread.
