CNN
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To SAP Ukrainian morale, Russia will dramatically bolster missile and drone attacks across Ukraine this month, but it is bolstering ground attacks along the long frontline, according to Ukrainian officials and analysts.
Some of these attacks were successful. Donetsk and North returned from several positions, and some rural areas to the south were also lost.
However, Ukraine’s own drones, deployed on several layers of the battlefield, helped Kiev suffer major losses to opposition forces with minimal casualties among its troops. They may become even more critical in the coming months.
Ukrainians are looking to expand their own drone industry to create defensive corridors along the main sections of the frontline, often referred to as “drone walls.”
Meanwhile, the Kremlin is pursuing two extension strategies aimed at ignoring President Donald Trump’s efforts to secure a ceasefire to Ukraine, hoping to force Ukraine to admit defeat and destroy cities from the sky and remove lines of defence on the ground.
Russia has rapidly expanded its production of its own drones and missiles over the past year, using mass attacks with hundreds of projectiles at once. Russia’s strategy is trying to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defense with many low-cost drones, so that missile strikes will be successful at the same time.
On the ground, Russian forces are simultaneously investigating Ukrainian defenses along many parts of the frontline, advancing in small numbers into abandoned villages and open countrysides, from Zapolijazia to the south to Smee in the north.
Rather than rolling Ukrainian defenses, the Russians use cars, motorcycles and scattered infantry platoons to drive them away.
According to the Washington Institute (ISW), Russian troops have averaged about 14 square kilometers (5.4 square miles) per day so far this year. This rate means that nearly four more years will be required to complete the occupation of four regions illegally annexed by Moscow.
These are the well-stated goals of the Kremlin, but they are also trying to instill a sense among Kiev’s allies of Russia’s superiority over the Ukrainian army.
Much of the battle is Donetsk, and the Russians are still determined to seize the entire region. This is unless handed over in peace negotiations, a non-starter for Ukrainian President Voldymir Zelensky.
The Russian Ministry of Defense on Tuesday claimed that a village south of the main town of Kostiantinibka was taken. The ISW assesses that the Russian troops have seized about 65 square Curie territory, but at the same time they cannot intensify their attack operations in several different directions.
According to Jack Watling, a senior researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, “main Russian efforts for the summer will once again oppose the major towns of Kostiantinibka and Pokrovsk,” according to Jack Watling of Donetsk.
The Russian units bordered hundreds of miles north and several kilometers into the Smie area.
Zelensky told journalists Tuesday that the Russians “we’re gathering troops in the Smie direction right now. Over 50,000 people. We understand that. But we’re making progress there.”
Zelensky said the Russians “wanted to build this buffer zone called 10km (6.2 miles) deep in Ukraine, but lacked capacity.
Russians are supporting these operations with missiles and air launch guided bomb attacks.
The attack on Sumy will involve the army creating buffer zones (Sumy and Kharkiv regions) within northern Ukraine in accordance with the Kremlin orders of May 21. It happened when President Vladimir Putin crossed the border and visited Russia’s Kursk region.
Capturing the capital of the Smie region is probably beyond the Russians. The topography is thick and covered in forests. However, through their attacks, the Russians can prevent the Ukrainians from relocating their units to Donetsk.
Furthermore, to the east, there was a rise in recent fighting around Vovchansk in the Kharkov region.
At the 1,000-kilometer (621 miles) frontline, Ukrainian forces will need to decide which regions are under the greatest threat, where to withdraw, and how to redeploy.
The balance of manpower, despite its huge losses, remains extremely important in the favor of Russia. Putin recently claimed that 60,000 volunteers are recruited monthly. Observers believe this is probably exaggerated, but it makes the sign-up bonus warding off Russian civilian wages an attractive option.
Ukrainian military chief Oleksandr Silsky said earlier this month that Kiev was “facing an “enemy grouping of up to 640,000 staff,” which was higher than the early days of the invasion. Zelensky said in January that Ukraine had 880,000 soldiers, but “880,000 are protecting the entire territory. The Russian army is concentrated in a certain direction.”
According to RUSI analyst Watling, Russia’s recruitment “is surpassing the monthly Kremlin targets of 2025.” “With shuffling the reserves of commanders and equipment, Russia is now set to increase the tempo and scale of the attack.”
However, according to Western assessments, in every square kilometre of Ukrainian land captured by Russia, Moscow has probably lost around 100 men.
Drone development and deployment continues to be important in the air campaign being played out above and behind the frontline and by Moscow.
Recent Russian advances in Donetsk, albeit incrementally, have been made possible by tactics to isolate the battlefield. Ukrainian units have reduced supply from the supply via drone strikes with supply vehicles ranging from the frontline up to 30 km (18.6 miles).
Ukraine’s defenses rely heavily on a layer of drones. According to Mick Ryan, author of Blog Futura Doctorina, Ukrainians are developing a concept called “drone wall” called “drone wall.”
“The Ukrainian army is increasingly deadly with the coordination of drones and craftsmen. The Russian attacks – motorcycle bases and armor – were defeated at several fronts in April with minimal Ukrainian losses.”
However, Ryan points out that effective drone walls need to be integrated with “and possibly AI-supported decision-making and analysis,” and integration with electronic warfare.
And that’s two-way. Ukrainian drones are “guided by small radars, and Russia is currently working systematically to find and target these radar stations,” writes Watling.
Zelensky said Tuesday that Russia plans to increase production of Shahed attack drones to 300-350 a day. When asked if the time would come when Russia would launch 1,000 drones in a day, he replied, “I can’t say this won’t happen.”
When you send hundreds of drones, they accumulate in the target area, causing air defense to saturate. Russia has also developed a drone that avoids Ukraine’s interference and can fly higher and faster than previous models. Ukrainian analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko said last week that one sharp was observed at a record altitude of 4,900 meters.
According to Zelensky, Ukraine is currently complementing air defense by deploying F-16s and Mirage Fighter Jets. “We’re also heading from drone to drone interceptors,” he said Tuesday.
Valeri Zarzhni, former Ukrainian military chief, says Ukraine must engage in a “high-tech war of survival,” in which drones play a key role, in order to “create the economic burden of wars that Russia cannot withstand.”
Speaking to the Kiev Forum last week, Zarzhni, now the Ukrainian ambassador to London, said his country had failed to exploit the innovation that “where he was ahead of the enemy yesterday. The enemy is already outweighing us.”
Analysts cite the rise in Russia’s use of short-range fiber optic drones that are not hindered as an example of technology races. Ukraine has not yet expanded the use of such drones. The drone relies on a few miles of optical fiber, albeit thick.
Zelensky denied that Ukraine had lost its drone war.
“We have as many drones as Russians, 300-500 drones per day. We’re very close to that,” he said.
The problem wasn’t production, Zelensky said – it was financial. As Ukraine often tries to work with Western manufacturers to produce their own weapons, Zelensky added:
But that’s a long-term goal.
Rusi’s Watling envisions tough months for Ukraine, “putting premiums on the efficiency of Ukrainian drone and artillery operations, the ability of Ukrainian commanders to maintain their troops, and the continuity of supply flowing from international Ukrainian partners.”
I’m not sure if US supplies will continue to continue as Trump is hot and cold about whether he should continue to help Ukraine protect itself.
According to ISW, Putin is “desperately sought to prevent future supply of Western military aid to Ukraine,” and “resourced Ukrainian forces have consistently demonstrated their ability to inflict unsustainable losses on Russian forces.”
Innovation and tactical agility are as influential as brute force as the war enters the fourth summer.
Kosta Gak and Victoria Butenko of CNN contributed the report.
