CNN
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After 19 months of pounding in Gaza, Israel is now increasing pressure from an unlikely quarter.
Their patience has messed up Israel’s decision to expand the war, and in the words of one Israeli minister, “conquering” the territory. This is a move coupled with a plan to force the entire population of Gaza to the south and block all humanitarian aid for 11 weeks.
The UK suspended trade talks and approved extremist settlers in the West Bank. Canada and France are threatening sanctions. Israel’s largest trading partner, the European Union is considering a groundbreaking association agreement with the country.
Aid groups have warned that the situation in Gaza is beginning to be devastating, and last week UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher has called on the world to “act decisively to prevent genocide.”
Dozens of babies have died of malnutrition and more than 53,000 (4% of the total population) have been killed since Israel launched the war following the October 7 terrorist attacks by Hamas and its allies.
The fact that some of Israel’s closest allies are now pushing back more voices is a sign of a major change in attitude towards the country.
Hugh Lovatt, a senior policy fellow at the European Council of Foreign Relations, told CNN that he could not even imagine talking about the possibility that Europe would reconsider its association agreement just two years ago. “It was something that was widely seen as taboo and unrealistic.”
The agreement covers various forms of cooperation between the two parties, including the free movement of goods and scientific collaboration, has been in place for 25 years. “The mere fact that this is being seriously discussed today will reveal anger, not just an increase in frustration, but also an increase in frustration, in the European capital surrounding Israel’s actions,” Robert said.
The punitive measures threatened by the EU and other allies are designed to shake up domestic debates within Israel, where society is already so divided in the war.
The government, supported by hardlinesses from far-right parties, is determined to continue fighting in Gaza. However, hundreds of thousands of Israelis show opposition to the war every week, and the government is demanding that they agree to a ceasefire agreement to release all hostages still held on the strip.
A poll released by Israeli Channel 12 broadcasters earlier this month found that 61% of those surveyed support to end the war for a deal to secure hostage release, while only 25% supported the expanded military operation.
Nevertheless, Ali Reich, a legal scholar at Bah Iran University in Israel who specializes in international trade and EU law, said external pressure on the Netanyahu government may not have a desirable effect.
“When a foreign country tries to interfere with other countries’ internal issues, especially those that are very important, such as national security, it usually acts as a boomerang, and in fact people will have their governments more support,” he said.
“Israel has a broad consensus that they want to release hostages and don’t want to return to where it was on October 6. We don’t want Hamas threats to remain on us,” Reich said.
However, he added that movements by some of Israel’s allies revealed that “windows for the use of military force are beginning to close.”
“And if it lasts longer than that, I think it’s very difficult to maintain normal relationships with many countries in the West,” he said.
Israel has so far sidelined threats from its Western allies. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused the attackers of “providing huge prizes” on October 7, but Israel’s foreign ministry said “outside pressure will not divert Israel from the path of fighting for its existence and its existence and security with its enemies.”
This determination to continue may be due to Netanyahu’s belief that he can rely on the US for assistance, at least for now.
And while the movement is diplomatically symbolic, critics expect little change on Palestinian earth.
Omar Barghuti, co-founder of the Boycott, Selling and Sanctions (BDS) Movement, a global campaign aimed at pressure Israel to end the occupation of Palestinian lands, told CNN that their actions will have almost no consequences unless Israeli allies stop their support for Israel completely.
By providing “military, intelligence, economic and diplomatic support” in Israel’s actions in Gaza, he said it is unlikely that Israel will change the way it does, he said.
All three countries have long-standing agreements with Israel, including defense and security cooperation, but details of what exactly these are included are unknown.
The UK and France have suspended several arms licenses to Israel over the Gaza situation, but continue to export tens of millions of dollars worth of military equipment to Israel. Canada has said no military goods export licenses to Israel have been issued since January 8, 2024.
Israel’s most powerful backers support it
As Israel’s most powerful ally, the United States is the most shaking over Netanyahu and his government. And while some people in the Trump administration have criticised Israel for the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, there was no indication that the US would take punitive action against it.
But that’s not a “slouching conclusion” that the United States will always keep Israel clearly on its shoulder, Robert said.
“I haven’t seen a rupture into the relationship, but obviously the arrival of the second Trump administration has created an interesting dynamic given the impact of what I call “American Fast Star.”
The US has stepped out of stage with Israel over issues in recent weeks.
It was ceasefire and halted without first letting Israel know with Iran-backed rebels in Yemen. One-sided negotiations with Hamas were the release of US citizen Edan Alexander from Gaza. It also removed requests for Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel as a condition of US investment and potential US arms trade, according to a Reuters report.
Israeli Ambassador Mike Huckabee, who has tackled criticism of Israel’s contract with the Housis, told Israeli media that the US “doesn’t need to obtain permission from Israel.”
“Netanyahu has established himself as a master of the US political game and as the best person to manage and maintain Israeli relations and maintain the US presidential administration. I think the sunlight between the Trump administration and the Israeli government is clearly putting pressure on Netanyahu,” Robert said.
US officials told CNN that US President Donald Trump is increasingly unhappy with Netanyahu, but stressed that these frustrations do not result in a change in stance in terms of US support for Israel, which the president continues to consider as one of America’s most powerful allies.
There are indications that parts of Israel are worried about the consequences of their actions in Gaza. Israeli general Air Golan, leader of the Israeli opposition Left-wing Democrats, warned on Tuesday that Israel is on its “in the process of becoming a Paria state.”
The impact of pressure from allies was on display on Sunday. The Israeli military has announced that it will allow “basic amounts of food” to enter Gaza.
Netanyahu admitted that Israel “simply receives no international support” if a “hunger situation” arises in Gaza on Monday.
In a statement posted to Telegram, he added that even a US senator “who has been an unconditional supporter of Israel for decades” told him that Gaza’s “image of massive hunger” would cost Israeli support.
Without the US using leverage to force Israel to change Gaza’s strategy in a more important way, it doesn’t mean that Europe cannot put pressure on Israel itself, experts say.
The European Union is Israel’s largest trading partner, accounting for about a third of its commodity trade.
The complete suspension of the association agreement between the EU and Israel indicates that a unanimous agreement in all 27 EU members is required, and some already do not support it, including Hungary, a solid supporter of Israel.
Reich said that under the terms of the agreement, both the EU and Israel could end it for any reason or even without giving any reason.
“In the EU, there’s a need for consensus, and that’s going to be very difficult because there are many countries that don’t follow this, many (EU) member states,” he said.
“So I think putting pressure on (on Israel) is even more threatening and maybe they could manage a temporary suspension of some provisions, but to end it, I don’t think it will happen,” he added.
People’s support for this country is run deeply in many bloc member states, making it difficult for some European governments to push for severe sanctions against Israel.
And Lovatt said he is aware of the fact that many European countries may also need the help of Israel in the future.
“In particular, in situations where European countries are increasingly afraid of Russia’s actions in Ukraine, Russia is a threat representing other Europes, and (they) see Israel as an important source of weapons and technology,” he said.
While unanimity is required to terminate the association contract, most of the EU states will simply force a partial suspension of the contract.
For Israel, it could be painful as it could lead to increased tariffs on Israeli products or prevent Israel from participating in coveted EU projects such as the Horizon Europe program, making it possible to trash more than $100 billion in funding available for research and innovation.
The EU has used the power to put pressure on the state against human rights abuses in the past. Lovatt is often about issues that are far less serious than the current situation in Gaza.
“The bottom row means that up until now, the EU has treated Israel with some degree of exceptionalism, not approaching the measures it took in other circumstances of human rights abuses and annexation,” Robert said.
