When will the shutdown end? Watch Chuck Schumer, rank-and-file Democrats, Trump, and Obamacare negotiations. Also, look at real-world issues such as employee layoffs and non-payment of salaries.
President Trump follows through on threat and begins cutting federal jobs
President Donald Trump’s administration made good on its threat to lay off thousands of federal employees, with government agencies issuing “retrenchment” notices heading into the weekend.
WASHINGTON – There are many questions about how to emerge from the ongoing and seemingly intractable government shutdown. But there is no clear answer.
The voices of the members of Congress on Capitol Hill sound like a broken record. President Donald Trump has been relatively focused on negotiating ceasefires in the Middle East. And he’s used the shutdown as an opportunity to direct money toward shows and people he likes and eliminate those he doesn’t like.
As the crisis enters its third week, there is no plausible solution in sight (yet). The Senate has rejected the same budget proposal more than six times. Another vote on a Republican fundraising measure failed on October 14th.
At some point, the many variables in the government shutdown equation could begin to change these dynamics, creating a path for enough congressional votes to reopen the government. Federal worker layoffs could get even worse, as the White House has threatened. Bipartisan behind-the-scenes maneuvering among senators could help find compromises on the biggest challenges.
Or top Democrats could change their mind about the political wisdom of allowing a government shutdown. The same goes for ordinary Democrats. And then there’s President Donald Trump, known for throwing curveballs at legislative negotiations and whose actions can be difficult to predict.
Time also works differently during a shutdown. The longer the shutdown lasts, the more pain people will feel. And in the words of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) just before the government lights went out, “Five days is an eternity in Washington.”
Here are seven key things to watch for signs of whether the shutdown is ending soon or, as House Speaker Mike Johnson has warned, “one of the longest shutdowns in U.S. history.”
obamacare negotiations
The main impasse in the funding fight is partisan disagreement over how to deal with the expiration of health insurance subsidies at the end of the year.
The subsidies provided in the form of tax credits are related to the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare. If Congress does nothing, millions of people will see their premiums rise on January 1, 2026.
Rank-and-file senators are beginning to take bipartisan back channels on what the Obamacare deal would look like in exchange for Democratic votes to reopen the government. It is not clear how these negotiations progressed.
House Republicans have also proposed a bill to extend the subsidies for one year, but Democrats say that’s not long enough. Differences among Republicans over any kind of intervention were highlighted after the government shutdown began, especially by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who fell out with party leadership. The longtime Trump ally said that while he is not a “fan” of Obamacare, his adult children’s health insurance premiums will double next year when the enhanced tax credits expire.
“No one in Republican leadership spoke to us about this or gave us a plan to help Americans deal with doubling their health insurance costs!!!” Greene wrote about X.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer
One of the most important people to watch in the government shutdown standoff is Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. If Republicans want a handful of Senate Democrats to break the 60-vote threshold to reopen the government, they will likely need Schumer to do it.
In March, the 74-year-old New Yorker rallied a small group of other Democrats to vote in favor of passing a Republican funding bill, averting the first threat of a Trump 2.0 shutdown. The decision caused widespread dissatisfaction, especially among progressives in the House and even moderates in the party.
Schumer is playing hardball this time. So far, he has remained steadfast in the face of Republican pressure, and his caucus has largely kept pace with him.
Republican officials, including the president, say Mr. Schumer’s fighting spirit is due to speculation that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York) will face Mr. Schumer in the primary, potentially forcing him to retire. (The 36-year-old congressman has not publicly announced any ambitions for the Senate, and Schumer, who served five terms, has not said he is considering retirement.)
Mr. Schumer insists that his hard-line stance on closure is not a result of political calculations. Rather, he characterized it as a necessary effort to push Republicans to do what’s best for the American people, especially for the quality of health care. “Republicans are feeling the heat,” he said on MSNBC over the weekend.
Moderate and retired Senate Democrats
Mr. Schumer has largely kept his caucus united during the government shutdown, but there are some wild cards who don’t have much reason to follow his rhetoric.
A handful of Senate Democrats are retiring, including Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Gary Peters of Michigan and Tina Smith of Minnesota. Same goes for Illinois’ Dick Durbin, but he and Schumer are longtime friends and likely won’t break up too publicly.
“We all need to work together,” Shaheen, a central figure in the nascent bipartisan health talks, said on Fox News a week ago.
Others are not retired, but like retirees, they tend to be more moderate. Senators such as New Hampshire’s Maggie Hassan voted in favor of the Republican funding bill in March. Now, they primarily argue that limiting the damage caused by the expiration of Obamacare subsidies is important enough to risk the consequences of a government shutdown.
“We need to restart the government, but we also need to address this urgent health crisis,” Hassan said in a video posted online last week.
Meanwhile, members of Congress like Jon Ossoff have campaigns to think about. He is seeking reelection next year in Georgia, a battleground state that Trump won in last year’s presidential election. So far, he has toed the party line.
trump factor
The last time the country went into government shutdown in March, there was no consensus among Democrats. This time, Republicans are struggling to stay united.
Mr. Trump has at times taken divergent positions compared to Congressional leaders, including House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune. He insisted that troops must be paid during the shutdown and that funds must be redirected to do so, but his colleagues on Capitol Hill said he had no intention of passing a standalone military pay bill. Mr. Trump, at least incidentally, has shown more willingness than Mr. Johnson and Mr. Thune to negotiate a health care deal with Democrats.
Republicans in Congress almost always follow Trump’s lead. However, the cracks emphasize that he is unpredictable. There’s always the possibility that a second-term Republican president suddenly decides to pressure other Republicans to compromise and end the shutdown faster.
Despite the domestic turmoil, the president has focused significant energy on international conflicts since the government shutdown began. He traveled to the Middle East this week to help broker the first phase of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. After returning to Washington, he will host the Argentine president and meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House on October 17.
Trump last met with members of Congress from both parties just before the government shutdown. The Oval Office meeting was called in hopes of negotiating funding as the start of the new fiscal year approaches Oct. 1. The president then posted offensive memes online against the Democrats he met. No agreement was reached.
federal layoffs
Following deep cuts to the federal workforce earlier this year, the White House laid off thousands more employees over the weekend.
The layoffs, initially tallied at more than 4,000 people, cast a wide and unforgiving net across many federal agencies, including nearly the entire Department of Education’s special education division. Between 1,100 and 1,200 employees were also cut from the Department of Health and Human Services, according to a Justice Department court filing (HHS unions say hundreds of HHS layoffs have since been reversed). Nearly 1,500 Treasury Department employees were also laid off.
The Office of Management and Budget, which cut staff, is not slowing down.
“OMB is fully prepared and making all possible preparations to weather the Democratic Party’s hardline stance,” the office said on social media. “Pay the military, pay the law enforcement, keep[retrenchments]going and wait.”
On Oct. 14, the president doubled down on that idea to reporters.
“We’re starting to be able to do things that we couldn’t do before,” he said. “We’re going to be shutting down Democratic programs that we wanted to shut down.”
Democratic Party leaders have so far appeared unfazed by the dismissal, calling it illegal and suggesting it will happen eventually. They cast Russell Vought, President Trump’s pick to head OMB, as a nefarious figure intent on destroying the federal workforce, regardless of whether a government shutdown occurred during his tenure.
“There is a Grim Reaper in every authoritarian leader,” Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said at a news conference. “Russell Vought is Donald Trump’s Grim Reaper.”
As time passes and Americans begin to feel the effects of cuts to government programs, Democrats’ resolve may change.
military salary
As the Oct. 15 deadline for military pay approaches, the president announced he would divert other Department of Defense funds to ensure service members receive their checks.
However, there are legal questions as to whether the president has such authority. “Probably not,” Rep. Jim Himes, D-Conn., said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” when asked if President Trump might take such unilateral action.
“The White House’s understanding of U.S. law,” he said, “is something I would hesitate to say is the best.”
House Speaker Mike Johnson did not intend to bring the standalone military pay bill to a vote, but he praised the president for finding a workaround and dared Democrats to challenge it.
“If the Democratic Party wants to go to court and challenge the payment of salaries to soldiers, they should sue,” he told reporters on October 14.
General pain of shutdown
As the government shutdown drags on, Americans are feeling its effects day by day. Flights are delayed, trash piles up at landmarks, and government services people rely on are disrupted by furloughs. Even in red states, governors are trying to use state funds to maintain national parks.
President Trump is betting that the American people will ultimately hold Democrats responsible for the unrest. Some airports last week began playing footage of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem warning travelers of disruptions because “Democrats in Congress are refusing to defund the federal government.”
As the deadline for further funding approaches, the burden on Americans is likely to become unbearable. On October 14, President Trump did not directly respond to a question about whether the government shutdown could be extended into November. But he stressed that this is not the first time.
Zachary Schermele is a Congressional reporter for USA TODAY. You can email us at zschermele@usatoday.com. Follow him on X at @ZachSchermele and on Bluesky at @zachschermele.bsky.social.
