Academy Award nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 22nd. These are the sectors to watch.
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The biggest question surrounding Academy Award nominations on Thursday, January 22nd, isn’t whether “One Battle After Another” will get some Oscar nominations. Alternatively, will there be enough to sink an unsinkable ship?
Paul Thomas Anderson’s revolutionary blockbuster has a good chance of at least tying, and possibly breaking, the all-time nominations record of 14, tied with La La Land, All About Eve, and yes, Titanic. But so is Ryan Coogler’s gangster-vampire-era blockbuster Sinners, in a still-not-so-roller-coaster awards season leading up to the 98th Oscars ceremony on March 15th.
Would that make it easier to predict without fear who will win the nomination tomorrow morning? No, because contempt and surprise always come when you least expect it.
It’s time to distinguish between the potential nominees and the nominees in the six major Oscar categories.
Best work
Best: Remember when only five movies received the Oscar’s biggest honor? If so, this category would be the most predictable. The Golden Globe-winning pair “One Battle After Another” and Shakespeare’s tear-jerker “Hamnet” will shoo in, and they will be joined by fellow producers, directors and Screen Actors Guild nominees “Frankenstein,” “Marty Supreme,” and “The Sinners.”
rest: Now, this is where things get a little more interesting. Usually, most of the Producers Guild Award nominees are selected for Best Picture, so this comes in handy for films like “Bugonia,” “F1: The Movie,” “Sentimental Value,” “Train Dreams” and “Weapons.” However, none of this is going to ignite awards season, so expect some change. “Sentimental Value” and “Bugonia” are both on the BAFTA Best Picture shortlist, so they may be in the best position to earn a spot. Acclaimed international films like “It Was Just an Accident” and “The Secret Agent” are no shock, but don’t take into account mainstream hits like “Wicked: For Good” and “Avatar: Fire and Ashes” sneaking into the race at the last minute.
Best Actor Award
Best: Timothee Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”) won the Globe and Critics’ Choice Awards and seems destined to return to the race for the second year in a row, making him the favorite to win his first Academy Award. He will be joined by Best Actor nominee Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”), who will be nominated for his first Oscar, and Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”), who will be nominated for his seventh time.
rest: Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) each have a good chance of earning a spot, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility for one or both to drop out. Moura appears to be the most unstable, having won a Golden Globe but not being longlisted for Best Actor or the BAFTAs. Jesse Plemons (“Bugonia”) is a SAG nod and looms as a dark horse, and Joel Edgerton (“Train Dreams”) also produces the film with perhaps the best picture mix. But maybe things will get weird and somehow Dwayne Johnson (Smashing Machines), Hollywood icon George Clooney (Jay Kelly) or even Oscar favorite Russell Crowe (Nuremberg) will show up.
Best Actress Award
Best: Yes, the world seems to be going crazy, but Jessie Buckley (“Hamnet”) has so far provided some stability running the table in leading actress honors. She’s definitely getting an Oscar nod. So does fellow Globe winner Rose Byrne (“If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You”). And at least two of the other three nominees for Best Actor, Emma Stone (“Bugonia”), Kate Hudson (“Song San Bleu”) and Chase Infinity (“One Battle After Another”), are also likely to be in this category.
rest: So who gets left behind? Hudson is Hollywood royalty, 25 years removed from her first and last nomination. Stone is no stranger to the category, having won twice in the past eight years. And Infinity is a new front-runner for the Oscars. The fact that “Son Son Bleu” was almost an awards season afterthought weakens Hudson’s chances, but she nabbed a Globe nomination and landed a spot on the BAFTA longlist. If someone stumbles, Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) will be there to take their place.
Best Supporting Actor Award
Best: This contingent also seems to have been decided upon. “One Battle After Another” co-stars Benicio Del Toro and Sean Penn rode the award-winning juggernaut, with Stellan Skarsgård (“Sentimental Value”) winning a Globe for his achievements (though he was left off the Best Actor list) and Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein”) scoring a surprise win at the Critics’ Choice Awards.
rest: Sinners breakout Myles Caton earned an important Best Actor nomination, and while it would be a great story if he were nominated for an Oscar, he could be a maverick. The most likely candidates to replace him are Paul Mescal (“Hamnet”), who was nominated for Best Actor two years ago, or Adam Sandler (“Jay Kelly”), who is beloved for one of his best roles. And Cayton’s co-star, Delroy Lindo, is a movie legend who has never received Oscar love in his long career.
Best Supporting Actress Award
Best: It looked like Oscar season was going out of control for Amy Madigan (Weapons) until Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) won Best Supporting Actress at the Globes. While both are definitely turning heads, the only other rocker seems to be Ariana Grande, going 2-for-2 with “Wicked: For Good.”
rest: The pair of “Sentimental Value” stars Elle Fanning and Inga Ebsdotter Lilleas may win the remaining slots, but the big blow to them is that neither will be considered for Best Actor. SAG chose Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) and Odessa Azion (Marty Supreme) instead, leaving them and a pair of veterans Regina Hall (One Battle After Another) and Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme) on the table.
Best Director Award
Best: Often, four out of five nominees for major Directors Guild awards are selected in this category. Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battle After Another”) probably won an Oscar, so he’ll probably be in it too. Other members of the group include Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Ryan Coogler (Sinners), all nominees for Best Picture. In fact, this may be a rare time when everyone can go party.
rest: I don’t think any of the above are really weaknesses, but history tends to repeat itself, even with the Oscars. One slot could be given to a producer of an acclaimed international film, such as Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) or Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). And there may also be surprises in store, like Clint Bentley (Train Dreams), James Cameron (Avatar: Fire and Ash), or even Julia Roberts-approved newcomer Eva Victor (Sorry Baby).
