Colorado State University’s forecast predicts 13 tropical storms, six of which will become hurricanes. How many shots could land in the United States?
What are the chances of a Super El Niño occurring this year?
Forecasters predict that El Niño could replace La Niña by late summer 2026, potentially changing the shape of the hurricane season. But what does that actually mean?
On Thursday, April 9, influential hurricane forecasts brought news as forecasters grapple with unmanageable weather patterns ahead of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1.
The forecast predicts a lower-than-average number of storms and warns of “high uncertainty.”
Colorado State University (CSU) meteorologists predict a total of 13 tropical cyclones, six of which will become hurricanes. A tropical cyclone becomes a hurricane when its sustained wind speeds reach 114 miles per hour.
Based on weather records from 1991 to 2020, a typical year averages about 14 tropical cyclones, seven of which turn into hurricanes. The developing El Niño, which often fuels global heat but can also result in weather patterns that inhibit hurricane development, is influencing the forecast.
Forecasters have warned that 2026 appears to have many ingredients for a dangerous season, with the potential for severe storms to develop rapidly.
Perhaps counterintuitive, the public shouldn’t feel too reassured by the new predictions, forecasters say. “As with any hurricane season, it only takes one landfall for coastal residents to be reminded that this is an active season,” CSU meteorologists say. “Each season requires careful preparation, regardless of the anticipated activity.”
The country’s top hurricane forecaster said El Niño does not necessarily protect the United States from hurricane danger.
“But even if El Niño continues for many years, we still have the potential for very high-impact Atlantic hurricanes,” said Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center, part of the National Weather Service, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The new forecast targets storms in the Atlantic basin, including the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, renamed the Gulf of America by the U.S. government.
What role does El Niño play?
Strong westerly winds caused by El Niño (a natural climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-normal Pacific waters) tend to prevent nascent Atlantic storms from forming. As upper-level winds strengthen, they can tear apart a hurricane as it attempts to form.
In its latest forecast, also released April 9, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said El Niño could occur as early as May, with a 61% chance of occurring sometime between May and July of this year.
How many major hurricanes are there?
Phil Klotzbach, a Colorado meteorologist and lead author, said of the six hurricanes predicted in the report, two should be major Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or faster.
analog season list
“So far, the 2026 hurricane season is showing similar characteristics to the 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023 seasons,” Klotzbach said. These years, known as analog seasons, “ranged from periods of well below average to slightly above average Atlantic hurricane activity.” These seasons had few memorable landfall storms.
“Although the average for the analog period is slightly below normal, the large spread in activity observed during the analog period highlights the high degree of uncertainty that typically accompanies the outlook in early April.”
The researchers predict that hurricane activity in 2026 will be about 75% of the average season from 1991 to 2020. By comparison, hurricane activity in 2025 was about 105% of average.
The most significant hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall in Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane, causing nearly $9 billion in damage and 95 deaths across the Caribbean.
Will a major hurricane hit the United States in 2026?
This report also includes the probability of the following major hurricanes making landfall in the United States:
- 32% for the entire U.S. coastline (average 43% from 1880 to 2020).
- 15% on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average 21% from 1880 to 2020);
- 20% on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas (average 27% from 1880 to 2020);
“Just one is fine.”
National Hurricane Center staff are urging people not to pay attention to experts on social media who are already talking about El Niño’s potential calming effect on hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin.
“No matter what the seasonal forecast is, there is a risk of hurricane impact every year,” said Michael Brennan, director of the National Weather Service Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“The old idea is that you only need one thing, and that’s true. That’s why that idea exists,” he said. “Even during seasons when the overall environment is unfavorable, storm-prone conditions can occur for days or weeks.”
Larry Kelly, one of the center’s hurricane experts, said the 1992 hurricane season was a case in point. There were only seven systems in the Atlantic Basin named tropical and subtropical, and Hurricane Andrew was the first.
The hurricane killed 65 people and caused more than $25 billion in damage, including more than 25,000 homes destroyed and more than 110,000 damaged in southern Miami-Dade County.
What about hurricanes in the Pacific?
Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15th. Eastern Pacific hurricanes are unlikely to have a major impact on the United States, but they can hit the west coast of Mexico. Colorado does not forecast seasons for the eastern Pacific, but El Niño tends to be more active in the basin.
What are other forecasters saying?
In a March forecast, AccuWeather meteorologists predicted 11 to 16 named tropical cyclones would form in the Atlantic Basin in 2026, of which four to seven would become hurricanes.
AccuWeather also said there would be three to five direct impacts from the hurricanes on the United States.
Federal scientists at NOAA are expected to release their predictions in May.
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, focusing on weather and climate. Dinah Boyles Pulver is also a national correspondent, covering climate change, wildlife and the environment. Contact dpulver@usatoday.com or @dinahvp on Bluesky or dinahvp.77 on X or Signal.
