For those looking forward to cold weather, the weeks after Thanksgiving could be a tease of the bitter Arctic cold that could arrive later in December.
What is a polar vortex? How it affects snow and ice in the United States
A polar vortex is a large region of cold air that circulates over the North Pole. If the wind is strong, the wind will be suppressed, but if the wind weakens, it may sway or stretch.
The weeks after Thanksgiving may just tease the severe Arctic cold that could arrive in late December.
Well, cold weather lovers, it looks like that time is almost here. And for snow lovers, although the possibility is increasing, nothing is certain yet.
For the rest of us, there are only 118 days until spring.
Weather Trader meteorologist Ryan Maue said in an email to USA TODAY that cold air will spread across the Midwest and Great Lakes around Thanksgiving.
However, he said it would not be a large-scale explosion in the Arctic. He calls it “just a snack (maybe yams) before the whole turkey shows up by the second week of December,” likely thanks to the polar vortex.
Weather forecast until early December
“Below-normal temperatures are likely to favor the central and northern United States, including the northern Pacific Northwest, the Great Plains, parts of Texas, and the interior mid-Atlantic region. Below-normal temperatures could begin as early as November 25, increasing in spatial extent and confidence from November 26 to 30,” the National Weather Service said.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, the drop in temperatures is expected to continue until early December. “Temperatures will remain below normal across the northern tier and the Great Plains, extending eastward to the Northeast Coast.”
“Stretched polar vortex”
It will be cold, but it won’t be the true arctic blizzard that Maue is predicting for the end of the month. Maue said the jet stream will decrease and colder weather will occur around Thanksgiving and Black Friday weekends. But he said the remaining “packed” Arctic polar vortex may remain trapped in Canada until early December (for now). Wait for the trigger. ”
Judah Cohen, a polar vortex expert, climatologist, and researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), told USA TODAY that the real cold weather will arrive in mid-December. “Increases in severe winter weather (cold and snow) will be concentrated in Canada and the United States east of the Rocky Mountains (rather than in Europe).”
Why is this? “I am more convinced that the large-scale polar vortex disruption predicted in the future should be viewed as a “stretched polar vortex” rather than the classic “sudden stratospheric warming.”
(Counterintuitively, sudden warming of the stratosphere can lead to severe cold at the Earth’s surface.)
short but intense cold
“These events tend to be very damaging, but short-lived,” he said.
“Sudden warming of the stratosphere can affect the weather for up to two months, but the effects of this polar vortex disruption will be limited to a few weeks at most, and likely until December.”
Cohen said that because the polar vortex is relatively weak during its stretch, it is likely to be more intense than a typical polar vortex stretch, similar to what happened in 2024 and January 2023.
“The last strong polar vortex in December was in December 2022, causing a deadly and record-setting Buffalo Blizzard that killed dozens of people.”
